2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 40% by March 31?
YES Price
3.1%
NO Price
96.9%
Volume
$25.3K
Liquidity
$18.9K
Days to Expiry
19
Mar 31, 2026
Alpha Score
Insufficient Data
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Split
Strength
50.0%
Edge
--
Smart Wallets
2
Total smart money volume: $5.5K across 2 wallets. Direction: SPLIT.
Market Analysis
Smart money is divided on this market. 2 tracked wallets have placed $5.5K in total positions, but without a clear directional consensus. A split among informed traders often indicates genuine uncertainty — this market may be closer to a coin flip than the current prices suggest.
At 3.1% for YES, this is a high-payout longshot. A YES resolution would return roughly 31.7x on the investment. The asymmetry is attractive — you don't need to be right often on these to profit, but the base rate of sub-20% events resolving YES is low. Consider position sizing accordingly.
19 days remain until this market resolves. This medium-term horizon gives time for the smart money thesis to play out, but also introduces event risk. Markets this far from expiry can see significant price swings as new information emerges.
At $25.3K in volume, this market has seen limited trading activity. Lower-volume markets can offer larger edges but come with execution risk — wide spreads and thin order books may make it difficult to enter or exit at desired prices.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
26/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
--
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$18.9K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 40% by March 31?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 3.1% and NO at 96.9%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 3.1%. The market has seen $25.3K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 40% by March 31?"?
Smart money consensus is Split with 50% strength. 2 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $5.5K. Their overall direction is SPLIT.
Is "2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 40% by March 31?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 26 out of 72 and an alpha score of N/A out of 100. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this us politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2026. That's 19 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 40% by March 31?" market?
The market has $18.9K in liquidity. Thin liquidity — may experience slippage on larger orders Total volume traded is $25.3K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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