Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of March 16 above $265?
YES Price
25.5%
NO Price
74.5%
Volume
$6
Liquidity
$448
Days to Expiry
8
Mar 20, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Strong NO
Strength
100.0%
Edge
25.5%
Smart Wallets
1
Total smart money volume: $6 across 1 wallet. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 1 tracked wallets have deployed $6 in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge is 25.5% — a substantial gap between the current market price and where smart money analysis suggests the true probability lies. With the market pricing YES at 25.5% and the Strong NO consensus, there's a meaningful divergence that could represent a trading opportunity. Edges this large don't persist indefinitely; they either correct as the market catches up, or the smart money thesis proves wrong.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 25.5% and NO at 74.5%. A YES resolution returns 3.92x while a NO resolution returns 1.34x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
With 8 days until expiry, this is a short-duration trade. The compressed timeline limits exposure to black swan events but also means the market is likely well-informed. Position conviction should be high at this stage.
At $6 in volume, this market has seen limited trading activity. Lower-volume markets can offer larger edges but come with execution risk — wide spreads and thin order books may make it difficult to enter or exit at desired prices.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
39/72
Mild Opportunity
Annualized Return
1000%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$448
Available depth
This market presents a moderate trading opportunity. The edge exists but is balanced against factors like liquidity constraints or lower conviction in the consensus. Position sizing should reflect the moderate confidence level.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of March 16 above $265?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 25.5% and NO at 74.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 25.5%. The market has seen $6 in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of March 16 above $265?"?
Smart money consensus is Strong NO with 100% strength. 1 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $6. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of March 16 above $265?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 39 out of 72 and an alpha score of 12 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 25.5%. The annualized return potential is 1000%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this business & economics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 20, 2026. That's 8 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of March 16 above $265?" market?
The market has $448 in liquidity. Very thin liquidity — trade with caution, significant slippage risk Total volume traded is $6, which provides additional context on market activity.
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