Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $240 end of March?
YES Price
5.5%
NO Price
94.5%
Volume
--
Liquidity
$140
Days to Expiry
19
Mar 31, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Strong NO
Strength
100.0%
Edge
5.4%
Smart Wallets
1
Total smart money volume: $42 across 1 wallet. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 1 tracked wallets have deployed $42 in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge sits at 5.4%, indicating a moderate gap between market pricing and smart money sentiment. YES is currently at 5.5% while the Strong NO consensus suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to the information smart wallets are acting on. This edge is meaningful but not extreme.
At 5.5% for YES, this is a high-payout longshot. A YES resolution would return roughly 18.3x on the investment. The asymmetry is attractive — you don't need to be right often on these to profit, but the base rate of sub-20% events resolving YES is low. Consider position sizing accordingly.
19 days remain until this market resolves. This medium-term horizon gives time for the smart money thesis to play out, but also introduces event risk. Markets this far from expiry can see significant price swings as new information emerges.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
23/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
105%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$140
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $240 end of March?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 5.5% and NO at 94.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 5.5%.
What does smart money think about "Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $240 end of March?"?
Smart money consensus is Strong NO with 100% strength. 1 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $42. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $240 end of March?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 23 out of 72 and an alpha score of 1 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 5.4%. The annualized return potential is 105%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this business & economics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2026. That's 19 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $240 end of March?" market?
The market has $140 in liquidity. Very thin liquidity — trade with caution, significant slippage risk
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