Another US bank failure by March 31?
YES Price
19.0%
NO Price
81.0%
Volume
$73.6K
Liquidity
$4.8K
Days to Expiry
19
Mar 31, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Lean NO
Strength
62.5%
Edge
13.3%
Smart Wallets
16
Total smart money volume: $4.2K across 16 wallets. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 16 tracked wallets have deployed $4.2K in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge sits at 13.3%, indicating a moderate gap between market pricing and smart money sentiment. YES is currently at 19.0% while the Lean NO consensus suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to the information smart wallets are acting on. This edge is meaningful but not extreme.
At 19.0% for YES, this is a high-payout longshot. A YES resolution would return roughly 5.3x on the investment. The asymmetry is attractive — you don't need to be right often on these to profit, but the base rate of sub-20% events resolving YES is low. Consider position sizing accordingly.
19 days remain until this market resolves. This medium-term horizon gives time for the smart money thesis to play out, but also introduces event risk. Markets this far from expiry can see significant price swings as new information emerges.
At $73.6K in volume, this market has seen limited trading activity. Lower-volume markets can offer larger edges but come with execution risk — wide spreads and thin order books may make it difficult to enter or exit at desired prices.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
31/72
Mild Opportunity
Annualized Return
256%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$4.8K
Available depth
This market presents a moderate trading opportunity. The edge exists but is balanced against factors like liquidity constraints or lower conviction in the consensus. Position sizing should reflect the moderate confidence level.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Another US bank failure by March 31?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 19.0% and NO at 81.0%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 19.0%. The market has seen $73.6K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Another US bank failure by March 31?"?
Smart money consensus is Lean NO with 63% strength. 16 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $4.2K. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "Another US bank failure by March 31?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 31 out of 72 and an alpha score of 15 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 13.3%. The annualized return potential is 256%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this business & economics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2026. That's 19 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Another US bank failure by March 31?" market?
The market has $4.8K in liquidity. Very thin liquidity — trade with caution, significant slippage risk Total volume traded is $73.6K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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