Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 17?
YES Price
97.0%
NO Price
3.0%
Volume
$18.9K
Liquidity
$25.4K
Days to Expiry
5
Mar 17, 2026
Alpha Score
Insufficient Data
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Split
Strength
50.0%
Edge
--
Smart Wallets
2
Total smart money volume: $1.1K across 2 wallets. Direction: SPLIT.
Market Analysis
Smart money is divided on this market. 2 tracked wallets have placed $1.1K in total positions, but without a clear directional consensus. A split among informed traders often indicates genuine uncertainty — this market may be closer to a coin flip than the current prices suggest.
With YES priced at 97.0%, this is a high-probability market with limited upside. A YES win returns only 3% on capital. The real opportunity may be on the NO side if you believe the market is overestimating the likelihood of this outcome. At 3.0% for NO, a correct contrarian bet returns 33.3x.
With 5 days until expiry, this is a short-duration trade. The compressed timeline limits exposure to black swan events but also means the market is likely well-informed. Position conviction should be high at this stage.
At $18.9K in volume, this market has seen limited trading activity. Lower-volume markets can offer larger edges but come with execution risk — wide spreads and thin order books may make it difficult to enter or exit at desired prices.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
33/72
Mild Opportunity
Annualized Return
--
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$25.4K
Available depth
This market presents a moderate trading opportunity. The edge exists but is balanced against factors like liquidity constraints or lower conviction in the consensus. Position sizing should reflect the moderate confidence level.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 17?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 97.0% and NO at 3.0%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 97.0%. The market has seen $18.9K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 17?"?
Smart money consensus is Split with 50% strength. 2 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $1.1K. Their overall direction is SPLIT.
Is "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 17?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 33 out of 72 and an alpha score of N/A out of 100. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this crypto & web3 market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 17, 2026. That's 5 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 17?" market?
The market has $25.4K in liquidity. Moderate liquidity — suitable for most position sizes Total volume traded is $18.9K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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