Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET
YES Price
92.0%
NO Price
8.0%
Volume
$14.8K
Liquidity
$3.4K
Days to Expiry
1
Mar 13, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Lean YES
Strength
66.7%
Edge
5.6%
Smart Wallets
3
Total smart money volume: $1.5K across 3 wallets. Direction: STRONG YES.
Market Analysis
Smart money is decisively bullish on this market. 3 tracked wallets with a history of profitable trades have taken positions totaling $1.5K, overwhelmingly favoring YES. This level of conviction from informed traders is notable — when this many smart wallets align on one side, it often signals information or analysis the broader market hasn't fully priced in.
The consensus edge sits at 5.6%, indicating a moderate gap between market pricing and smart money sentiment. YES is currently at 92.0% while the Lean YES consensus suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to the information smart wallets are acting on. This edge is meaningful but not extreme.
With YES priced at 92.0%, this is a high-probability market with limited upside. A YES win returns only 9% on capital. The real opportunity may be on the NO side if you believe the market is overestimating the likelihood of this outcome. At 8.0% for NO, a correct contrarian bet returns 12.5x.
This market expires in 1 day — resolution is imminent. Short-dated markets tend to have the most accurate pricing since most information is already known. Any remaining edge is likely small, but the rapid time decay means positions resolve quickly with minimal holding risk.
At $14.8K in volume, this market has seen limited trading activity. Lower-volume markets can offer larger edges but come with execution risk — wide spreads and thin order books may make it difficult to enter or exit at desired prices.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
13/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
1000%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$3.4K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
Trade This Market on PolyFire
Copy smart money trades automatically. One-click execution via Telegram.
Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 92.0% and NO at 8.0%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 92.0%. The market has seen $14.8K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET"?
Smart money consensus is Lean YES with 67% strength. 3 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $1.5K. Their overall direction is STRONG YES.
Is "Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 13 out of 72 and an alpha score of 3 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 5.6%. The annualized return potential is 1000%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this crypto & web3 market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 13, 2026. That's 1 day from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET" market?
The market has $3.4K in liquidity. Very thin liquidity — trade with caution, significant slippage risk Total volume traded is $14.8K, which provides additional context on market activity.
Get Alpha Delivered
Weekly smart money moves, top-scoring markets, and data-driven predictions. No noise.
Coming soon.