FDA approves Retatrutide this year?
YES Price
27.5%
NO Price
72.5%
Volume
$542.6K
Liquidity
$2.0K
Days to Expiry
293
Dec 31, 2026
Alpha Score
Low Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Strong NO
Strength
85.7%
Edge
27.5%
Smart Wallets
14
Total smart money volume: $56.0K across 14 wallets. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 14 tracked wallets have deployed $56.0K in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge is 27.5% — a substantial gap between the current market price and where smart money analysis suggests the true probability lies. With the market pricing YES at 27.5% and the Strong NO consensus, there's a meaningful divergence that could represent a trading opportunity. Edges this large don't persist indefinitely; they either correct as the market catches up, or the smart money thesis proves wrong.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 27.5% and NO at 72.5%. A YES resolution returns 3.64x while a NO resolution returns 1.38x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
This is a longer-dated market with 293 days to resolution. While the annualized return potential can look attractive, extended timelines come with significant uncertainty. Smart money positions taken this far out reflect high-conviction views, but a lot can change.
Total trading volume of $542.6K puts this in the moderately active tier. There's enough price discovery for the odds to be somewhat reliable, but not so much that alpha opportunities are completely arbitraged away.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
18/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
34%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$2.0K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "FDA approves Retatrutide this year?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 27.5% and NO at 72.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 27.5%. The market has seen $542.6K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "FDA approves Retatrutide this year?"?
Smart money consensus is Strong NO with 86% strength. 14 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $56.0K. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "FDA approves Retatrutide this year?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 18 out of 72 and an alpha score of 21 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 27.5%. The annualized return potential is 34%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this science & technology market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026. That's 293 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "FDA approves Retatrutide this year?" market?
The market has $2.0K in liquidity. Very thin liquidity — trade with caution, significant slippage risk Total volume traded is $542.6K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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