Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?
YES Price
79.5%
NO Price
20.5%
Volume
$87.2K
Liquidity
$19.0K
Days to Expiry
64
May 15, 2026
Alpha Score
Low Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Lean YES
Strength
66.7%
Edge
14.3%
Smart Wallets
12
Total smart money volume: $11.4K across 12 wallets. Direction: STRONG YES.
Market Analysis
Smart money is decisively bullish on this market. 12 tracked wallets with a history of profitable trades have taken positions totaling $11.4K, overwhelmingly favoring YES. This level of conviction from informed traders is notable — when this many smart wallets align on one side, it often signals information or analysis the broader market hasn't fully priced in.
The consensus edge sits at 14.3%, indicating a moderate gap between market pricing and smart money sentiment. YES is currently at 79.5% while the Lean YES consensus suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to the information smart wallets are acting on. This edge is meaningful but not extreme.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 79.5% and NO at 20.5%. A YES resolution returns 1.26x while a NO resolution returns 4.88x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
This is a longer-dated market with 64 days to resolution. While the annualized return potential can look attractive, extended timelines come with significant uncertainty. Smart money positions taken this far out reflect high-conviction views, but a lot can change.
At $87.2K in volume, this market has seen limited trading activity. Lower-volume markets can offer larger edges but come with execution risk — wide spreads and thin order books may make it difficult to enter or exit at desired prices.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
25/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
82%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$19.0K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 79.5% and NO at 20.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 79.5%. The market has seen $87.2K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?"?
Smart money consensus is Lean YES with 67% strength. 12 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $11.4K. Their overall direction is STRONG YES.
Is "Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 25 out of 72 and an alpha score of 22 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 14.3%. The annualized return potential is 82%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this us politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on May 15, 2026. That's 64 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?" market?
The market has $19.0K in liquidity. Thin liquidity — may experience slippage on larger orders Total volume traded is $87.2K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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