Will Ausar Thompson lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?
YES Price
9.4%
NO Price
90.6%
Volume
$7.9K
Liquidity
$772
Days to Expiry
30
Apr 12, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Strong NO
Strength
100.0%
Edge
9.4%
Smart Wallets
1
Total smart money volume: $155 across 1 wallet. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 1 tracked wallets have deployed $155 in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge sits at 9.4%, indicating a moderate gap between market pricing and smart money sentiment. YES is currently at 9.4% while the Strong NO consensus suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to the information smart wallets are acting on. This edge is meaningful but not extreme.
At 9.4% for YES, this is a high-payout longshot. A YES resolution would return roughly 10.6x on the investment. The asymmetry is attractive — you don't need to be right often on these to profit, but the base rate of sub-20% events resolving YES is low. Consider position sizing accordingly.
30 days remain until this market resolves. This medium-term horizon gives time for the smart money thesis to play out, but also introduces event risk. Markets this far from expiry can see significant price swings as new information emerges.
At $7.9K in volume, this market has seen limited trading activity. Lower-volume markets can offer larger edges but come with execution risk — wide spreads and thin order books may make it difficult to enter or exit at desired prices.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
26/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
114%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$772
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Ausar Thompson lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 9.4% and NO at 90.6%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 9.4%. The market has seen $7.9K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will Ausar Thompson lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?"?
Smart money consensus is Strong NO with 100% strength. 1 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $155. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "Will Ausar Thompson lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 26 out of 72 and an alpha score of 12 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 9.4%. The annualized return potential is 114%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this sports market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on April 12, 2026. That's 30 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Ausar Thompson lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?" market?
The market has $772 in liquidity. Very thin liquidity — trade with caution, significant slippage risk Total volume traded is $7.9K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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