Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of March?
YES Price
49.0%
NO Price
51.0%
Volume
--
Liquidity
$304
Days to Expiry
19
Mar 31, 2026
Alpha Score
Insufficient Data
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Split
Strength
50.0%
Edge
--
Smart Wallets
2
Total smart money volume: $2.3K across 2 wallets. Direction: SPLIT.
Market Analysis
Smart money is divided on this market. 2 tracked wallets have placed $2.3K in total positions, but without a clear directional consensus. A split among informed traders often indicates genuine uncertainty — this market may be closer to a coin flip than the current prices suggest.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 49.0% and NO at 51.0%. A YES resolution returns 2.04x while a NO resolution returns 1.96x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
19 days remain until this market resolves. This medium-term horizon gives time for the smart money thesis to play out, but also introduces event risk. Markets this far from expiry can see significant price swings as new information emerges.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
20/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
--
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$304
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of March?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 49.0% and NO at 51.0%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 49.0%.
What does smart money think about "Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of March?"?
Smart money consensus is Split with 50% strength. 2 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $2.3K. Their overall direction is SPLIT.
Is "Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of March?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 20 out of 72 and an alpha score of N/A out of 100. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this business & economics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2026. That's 19 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of March?" market?
The market has $304 in liquidity. Very thin liquidity — trade with caution, significant slippage risk
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