Will 13-14 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
YES Price
4.8%
NO Price
95.2%
Volume
--
Liquidity
$1.5K
Days to Expiry
294
Dec 31, 2026
Alpha Score
Insufficient Data
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Split
Strength
50.0%
Edge
--
Smart Wallets
2
Total smart money volume: $67 across 2 wallets. Direction: SPLIT.
Market Analysis
Smart money is divided on this market. 2 tracked wallets have placed $67 in total positions, but without a clear directional consensus. A split among informed traders often indicates genuine uncertainty — this market may be closer to a coin flip than the current prices suggest.
At 4.8% for YES, this is a high-payout longshot. A YES resolution would return roughly 20.8x on the investment. The asymmetry is attractive — you don't need to be right often on these to profit, but the base rate of sub-20% events resolving YES is low. Consider position sizing accordingly.
This is a longer-dated market with 294 days to resolution. While the annualized return potential can look attractive, extended timelines come with significant uncertainty. Smart money positions taken this far out reflect high-conviction views, but a lot can change.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
1/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
--
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$1.5K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will 13-14 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 4.8% and NO at 95.2%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 4.8%.
What does smart money think about "Will 13-14 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?"?
Smart money consensus is Split with 50% strength. 2 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $67. Their overall direction is SPLIT.
Is "Will 13-14 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 1 out of 72 and an alpha score of N/A out of 100. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this business & economics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026. That's 294 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will 13-14 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?" market?
The market has $1.5K in liquidity. Very thin liquidity — trade with caution, significant slippage risk
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