Will 150 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?
YES Price
47.0%
NO Price
53.0%
Volume
$9.1K
Liquidity
$2.5K
Days to Expiry
19
Mar 31, 2026
Alpha Score
Insufficient Data
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Split
Strength
51.6%
Edge
--
Smart Wallets
8
Total smart money volume: $1.5K across 8 wallets. Direction: SPLIT.
Market Analysis
Smart money is divided on this market. 8 tracked wallets have placed $1.5K in total positions, but without a clear directional consensus. A split among informed traders often indicates genuine uncertainty — this market may be closer to a coin flip than the current prices suggest.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 47.0% and NO at 53.0%. A YES resolution returns 2.13x while a NO resolution returns 1.89x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
19 days remain until this market resolves. This medium-term horizon gives time for the smart money thesis to play out, but also introduces event risk. Markets this far from expiry can see significant price swings as new information emerges.
At $9.1K in volume, this market has seen limited trading activity. Lower-volume markets can offer larger edges but come with execution risk — wide spreads and thin order books may make it difficult to enter or exit at desired prices.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
22/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
--
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$2.5K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will 150 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 47.0% and NO at 53.0%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 47.0%. The market has seen $9.1K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will 150 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?"?
Smart money consensus is Split with 52% strength. 8 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $1.5K. Their overall direction is SPLIT.
Is "Will 150 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 22 out of 72 and an alpha score of N/A out of 100. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this other markets market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2026. That's 19 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will 150 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?" market?
The market has $2.5K in liquidity. Very thin liquidity — trade with caution, significant slippage risk Total volume traded is $9.1K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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