Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?
YES Price
26.5%
NO Price
73.5%
Volume
$205.8K
Liquidity
$16.0K
Days to Expiry
293
Dec 31, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Lean NO
Strength
55.6%
Edge
18.6%
Smart Wallets
18
Total smart money volume: $5.0K across 18 wallets. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 18 tracked wallets have deployed $5.0K in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge is 18.6% — a substantial gap between the current market price and where smart money analysis suggests the true probability lies. With the market pricing YES at 26.5% and the Lean NO consensus, there's a meaningful divergence that could represent a trading opportunity. Edges this large don't persist indefinitely; they either correct as the market catches up, or the smart money thesis proves wrong.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 26.5% and NO at 73.5%. A YES resolution returns 3.77x while a NO resolution returns 1.36x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
This is a longer-dated market with 293 days to resolution. While the annualized return potential can look attractive, extended timelines come with significant uncertainty. Smart money positions taken this far out reflect high-conviction views, but a lot can change.
Total trading volume of $205.8K puts this in the moderately active tier. There's enough price discovery for the odds to be somewhat reliable, but not so much that alpha opportunities are completely arbitraged away.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
17/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
23%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$16.0K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 26.5% and NO at 73.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 26.5%. The market has seen $205.8K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?"?
Smart money consensus is Lean NO with 56% strength. 18 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $5.0K. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 17 out of 72 and an alpha score of 2 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 18.6%. The annualized return potential is 23%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this science & technology market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026. That's 293 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?" market?
The market has $16.0K in liquidity. Thin liquidity — may experience slippage on larger orders Total volume traded is $205.8K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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