Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
YES Price
93.2%
NO Price
6.9%
Volume
--
Liquidity
$3.5K
Days to Expiry
109
Jun 30, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Strong NO
Strength
71.4%
Edge
93.2%
Smart Wallets
7
Total smart money volume: $8.0K across 7 wallets. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 7 tracked wallets have deployed $8.0K in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge is 93.2% — a substantial gap between the current market price and where smart money analysis suggests the true probability lies. With the market pricing YES at 93.2% and the Strong NO consensus, there's a meaningful divergence that could represent a trading opportunity. Edges this large don't persist indefinitely; they either correct as the market catches up, or the smart money thesis proves wrong.
With YES priced at 93.2%, this is a high-probability market with limited upside. A YES win returns only 7% on capital. The real opportunity may be on the NO side if you believe the market is overestimating the likelihood of this outcome. At 6.9% for NO, a correct contrarian bet returns 14.6x.
This is a longer-dated market with 109 days to resolution. While the annualized return potential can look attractive, extended timelines come with significant uncertainty. Smart money positions taken this far out reflect high-conviction views, but a lot can change.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
33/72
Mild Opportunity
Annualized Return
312%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$3.5K
Available depth
This market presents a moderate trading opportunity. The edge exists but is balanced against factors like liquidity constraints or lower conviction in the consensus. Position sizing should reflect the moderate confidence level.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 93.2% and NO at 6.9%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 93.2%.
What does smart money think about "Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?"?
Smart money consensus is Strong NO with 71% strength. 7 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $8.0K. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 33 out of 72 and an alpha score of 1 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 93.2%. The annualized return potential is 312%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this business & economics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on June 30, 2026. That's 109 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?" market?
The market has $3.5K in liquidity. Very thin liquidity — trade with caution, significant slippage risk
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