Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?
YES Price
12.5%
NO Price
87.5%
Volume
--
Liquidity
$243
Days to Expiry
19
Mar 31, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Lean NO
Strength
66.7%
Edge
8.8%
Smart Wallets
3
Total smart money volume: $949 across 3 wallets. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 3 tracked wallets have deployed $949 in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge sits at 8.8%, indicating a moderate gap between market pricing and smart money sentiment. YES is currently at 12.5% while the Lean NO consensus suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to the information smart wallets are acting on. This edge is meaningful but not extreme.
At 12.5% for YES, this is a high-payout longshot. A YES resolution would return roughly 8.0x on the investment. The asymmetry is attractive — you don't need to be right often on these to profit, but the base rate of sub-20% events resolving YES is low. Consider position sizing accordingly.
19 days remain until this market resolves. This medium-term horizon gives time for the smart money thesis to play out, but also introduces event risk. Markets this far from expiry can see significant price swings as new information emerges.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
25/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
168%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$243
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 12.5% and NO at 87.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 12.5%.
What does smart money think about "Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?"?
Smart money consensus is Lean NO with 67% strength. 3 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $949. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 25 out of 72 and an alpha score of 1 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 8.8%. The annualized return potential is 168%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this other markets market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2026. That's 19 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?" market?
The market has $243 in liquidity. Very thin liquidity — trade with caution, significant slippage risk
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