Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
YES Price
79.0%
NO Price
21.0%
Volume
$22.2K
Liquidity
$10.2K
Days to Expiry
106
Jun 27, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Lean YES
Strength
60.0%
Edge
14.7%
Smart Wallets
5
Total smart money volume: $9.1K across 5 wallets. Direction: STRONG YES.
Market Analysis
Smart money is decisively bullish on this market. 5 tracked wallets with a history of profitable trades have taken positions totaling $9.1K, overwhelmingly favoring YES. This level of conviction from informed traders is notable — when this many smart wallets align on one side, it often signals information or analysis the broader market hasn't fully priced in.
The consensus edge sits at 14.7%, indicating a moderate gap between market pricing and smart money sentiment. YES is currently at 79.0% while the Lean YES consensus suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to the information smart wallets are acting on. This edge is meaningful but not extreme.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 79.0% and NO at 21.0%. A YES resolution returns 1.27x while a NO resolution returns 4.76x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
This is a longer-dated market with 106 days to resolution. While the annualized return potential can look attractive, extended timelines come with significant uncertainty. Smart money positions taken this far out reflect high-conviction views, but a lot can change.
At $22.2K in volume, this market has seen limited trading activity. Lower-volume markets can offer larger edges but come with execution risk — wide spreads and thin order books may make it difficult to enter or exit at desired prices.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
14/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
51%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$10.2K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 79.0% and NO at 21.0%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 79.0%. The market has seen $22.2K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?"?
Smart money consensus is Lean YES with 60% strength. 5 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $9.1K. Their overall direction is STRONG YES.
Is "Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 14 out of 72 and an alpha score of 5 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 14.7%. The annualized return potential is 51%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this sports market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on June 27, 2026. That's 106 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" market?
The market has $10.2K in liquidity. Thin liquidity — may experience slippage on larger orders Total volume traded is $22.2K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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