Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
YES Price
85.0%
NO Price
15.0%
Volume
$69.1K
Liquidity
$1.5K
Days to Expiry
18
Mar 31, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Strong NO
Strength
70.0%
Edge
85.0%
Smart Wallets
10
Total smart money volume: $5.7K across 10 wallets. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 10 tracked wallets have deployed $5.7K in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge is 85.0% — a substantial gap between the current market price and where smart money analysis suggests the true probability lies. With the market pricing YES at 85.0% and the Strong NO consensus, there's a meaningful divergence that could represent a trading opportunity. Edges this large don't persist indefinitely; they either correct as the market catches up, or the smart money thesis proves wrong.
With YES priced at 85.0%, this is a high-probability market with limited upside. A YES win returns only 18% on capital. The real opportunity may be on the NO side if you believe the market is overestimating the likelihood of this outcome. At 15.0% for NO, a correct contrarian bet returns 6.7x.
18 days remain until this market resolves. This medium-term horizon gives time for the smart money thesis to play out, but also introduces event risk. Markets this far from expiry can see significant price swings as new information emerges.
At $69.1K in volume, this market has seen limited trading activity. Lower-volume markets can offer larger edges but come with execution risk — wide spreads and thin order books may make it difficult to enter or exit at desired prices.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
51/72
Moderate Opportunity
Annualized Return
1000%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$1.5K
Available depth
This market scores in the top tier for trading opportunity. The combination of smart money edge, market liquidity, and time to expiry makes it worth close attention. The annualized return of 1000% is attractive if the smart money consensus proves correct.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 85.0% and NO at 15.0%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 85.0%. The market has seen $69.1K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?"?
Smart money consensus is Strong NO with 70% strength. 10 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $5.7K. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 51 out of 72 and an alpha score of 14 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 85.0%. The annualized return potential is 1000%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this business & economics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2026. That's 18 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?" market?
The market has $1.5K in liquidity. Very thin liquidity — trade with caution, significant slippage risk Total volume traded is $69.1K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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