Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
YES Price
25.5%
NO Price
74.5%
Volume
--
Liquidity
$1.2K
Days to Expiry
109
Jun 30, 2026
Alpha Score
Insufficient Data
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Split
Strength
53.3%
Edge
--
Smart Wallets
8
Total smart money volume: $5.4K across 8 wallets. Direction: SPLIT.
Market Analysis
Smart money is divided on this market. 8 tracked wallets have placed $5.4K in total positions, but without a clear directional consensus. A split among informed traders often indicates genuine uncertainty — this market may be closer to a coin flip than the current prices suggest.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 25.5% and NO at 74.5%. A YES resolution returns 3.92x while a NO resolution returns 1.34x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
This is a longer-dated market with 109 days to resolution. While the annualized return potential can look attractive, extended timelines come with significant uncertainty. Smart money positions taken this far out reflect high-conviction views, but a lot can change.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
--/72
Unrated
Annualized Return
--
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$1.2K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 25.5% and NO at 74.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 25.5%.
What does smart money think about "Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?"?
Smart money consensus is Split with 53% strength. 8 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $5.4K. Their overall direction is SPLIT.
Is "Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of N/A out of 72 and an alpha score of N/A out of 100. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this business & economics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on June 30, 2026. That's 109 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?" market?
The market has $1.2K in liquidity. Very thin liquidity — trade with caution, significant slippage risk
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