Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
YES Price
75.5%
NO Price
24.5%
Volume
$1.28M
Liquidity
$34.8K
Days to Expiry
140
Jul 31, 2026
Alpha Score
Insufficient Data
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Split
Strength
44.8%
Edge
--
Smart Wallets
40
Total smart money volume: $86.5K across 40 wallets. Direction: SPLIT.
Market Analysis
Smart money is divided on this market. 40 tracked wallets have placed $86.5K in total positions, but without a clear directional consensus. A split among informed traders often indicates genuine uncertainty — this market may be closer to a coin flip than the current prices suggest.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 75.5% and NO at 24.5%. A YES resolution returns 1.32x while a NO resolution returns 4.08x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
This is a longer-dated market with 140 days to resolution. While the annualized return potential can look attractive, extended timelines come with significant uncertainty. Smart money positions taken this far out reflect high-conviction views, but a lot can change.
With $1.28M in total volume, this is a heavily-traded market with strong price discovery. High-volume markets tend to be more efficiently priced, making any remaining smart money edge particularly significant — it's harder to find alpha in liquid markets.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
8/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
--
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$34.8K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
Trade This Market on PolyFire
Copy smart money trades automatically. One-click execution via Telegram.
Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 75.5% and NO at 24.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 75.5%. The market has seen $1.28M in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?"?
Smart money consensus is Split with 45% strength. 40 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $86.5K. Their overall direction is SPLIT.
Is "Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 8 out of 72 and an alpha score of N/A out of 100. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this us politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on July 31, 2026. That's 140 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?" market?
The market has $34.8K in liquidity. Moderate liquidity — suitable for most position sizes Total volume traded is $1.28M, which provides additional context on market activity.
Get Alpha Delivered
Weekly smart money moves, top-scoring markets, and data-driven predictions. No noise.
Coming soon.