Will Intercontinental Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?
YES Price
17.0%
NO Price
83.0%
Volume
--
Liquidity
$181
Days to Expiry
19
Mar 31, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Strong NO
Strength
100.0%
Edge
17.0%
Smart Wallets
1
Total smart money volume: $792 across 1 wallet. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 1 tracked wallets have deployed $792 in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge is 17.0% — a substantial gap between the current market price and where smart money analysis suggests the true probability lies. With the market pricing YES at 17.0% and the Strong NO consensus, there's a meaningful divergence that could represent a trading opportunity. Edges this large don't persist indefinitely; they either correct as the market catches up, or the smart money thesis proves wrong.
At 17.0% for YES, this is a high-payout longshot. A YES resolution would return roughly 5.9x on the investment. The asymmetry is attractive — you don't need to be right often on these to profit, but the base rate of sub-20% events resolving YES is low. Consider position sizing accordingly.
19 days remain until this market resolves. This medium-term horizon gives time for the smart money thesis to play out, but also introduces event risk. Markets this far from expiry can see significant price swings as new information emerges.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
34/72
Mild Opportunity
Annualized Return
327%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$181
Available depth
This market presents a moderate trading opportunity. The edge exists but is balanced against factors like liquidity constraints or lower conviction in the consensus. Position sizing should reflect the moderate confidence level.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Intercontinental Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 17.0% and NO at 83.0%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 17.0%.
What does smart money think about "Will Intercontinental Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?"?
Smart money consensus is Strong NO with 100% strength. 1 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $792. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "Will Intercontinental Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 34 out of 72 and an alpha score of 1 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 17.0%. The annualized return potential is 327%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this crypto & web3 market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2026. That's 19 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Intercontinental Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?" market?
The market has $181 in liquidity. Very thin liquidity — trade with caution, significant slippage risk
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