Will Luke Bronin be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?
YES Price
46.5%
NO Price
53.5%
Volume
$1.7K
Liquidity
$2.0K
Days to Expiry
151
Aug 11, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Strong NO
Strength
100.0%
Edge
46.5%
Smart Wallets
1
Total smart money volume: $80 across 1 wallet. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 1 tracked wallets have deployed $80 in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge is 46.5% — a substantial gap between the current market price and where smart money analysis suggests the true probability lies. With the market pricing YES at 46.5% and the Strong NO consensus, there's a meaningful divergence that could represent a trading opportunity. Edges this large don't persist indefinitely; they either correct as the market catches up, or the smart money thesis proves wrong.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 46.5% and NO at 53.5%. A YES resolution returns 2.15x while a NO resolution returns 1.87x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
This is a longer-dated market with 151 days to resolution. While the annualized return potential can look attractive, extended timelines come with significant uncertainty. Smart money positions taken this far out reflect high-conviction views, but a lot can change.
At $1.7K in volume, this market has seen limited trading activity. Lower-volume markets can offer larger edges but come with execution risk — wide spreads and thin order books may make it difficult to enter or exit at desired prices.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
29/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
112%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$2.0K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Luke Bronin be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 46.5% and NO at 53.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 46.5%. The market has seen $1.7K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will Luke Bronin be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?"?
Smart money consensus is Strong NO with 100% strength. 1 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $80. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "Will Luke Bronin be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 29 out of 72 and an alpha score of 6 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 46.5%. The annualized return potential is 112%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this other markets market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on August 11, 2026. That's 151 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Luke Bronin be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?" market?
The market has $2.0K in liquidity. Very thin liquidity — trade with caution, significant slippage risk Total volume traded is $1.7K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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