Will Melissa Bean be the Democratic Nominee for IL-08?
YES Price
63.5%
NO Price
36.5%
Volume
$10.8K
Liquidity
$5.7K
Days to Expiry
4
Mar 17, 2026
Alpha Score
Insufficient Data
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Split
Strength
50.0%
Edge
--
Smart Wallets
4
Total smart money volume: $2.6K across 4 wallets. Direction: SPLIT.
Market Analysis
Smart money is divided on this market. 4 tracked wallets have placed $2.6K in total positions, but without a clear directional consensus. A split among informed traders often indicates genuine uncertainty — this market may be closer to a coin flip than the current prices suggest.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 63.5% and NO at 36.5%. A YES resolution returns 1.57x while a NO resolution returns 2.74x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
With 4 days until expiry, this is a short-duration trade. The compressed timeline limits exposure to black swan events but also means the market is likely well-informed. Position conviction should be high at this stage.
At $10.8K in volume, this market has seen limited trading activity. Lower-volume markets can offer larger edges but come with execution risk — wide spreads and thin order books may make it difficult to enter or exit at desired prices.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
29/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
--
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$5.7K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Melissa Bean be the Democratic Nominee for IL-08?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 63.5% and NO at 36.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 63.5%. The market has seen $10.8K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will Melissa Bean be the Democratic Nominee for IL-08?"?
Smart money consensus is Split with 50% strength. 4 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $2.6K. Their overall direction is SPLIT.
Is "Will Melissa Bean be the Democratic Nominee for IL-08?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 29 out of 72 and an alpha score of N/A out of 100. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this other markets market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 17, 2026. That's 4 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Melissa Bean be the Democratic Nominee for IL-08?" market?
The market has $5.7K in liquidity. Thin liquidity — may experience slippage on larger orders Total volume traded is $10.8K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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