Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $90-$100 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?

Smart money is decisively bullish on this market. 1 tracked wallets with a history of profitable trades have taken positions totaling $5, overwhelmingly favoring YES. This level of conviction from informed traders is notable — when this many smart wallets align on one side, it often signals information or analysis the broader market hasn't fully priced in.

The consensus edge sits at 11.5%, indicating a moderate gap between market pricing and smart money sentiment. YES is currently at 88.5% while the Strong YES consensus suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to the information smart wallets are acting on. This edge is meaningful but not extreme.

With YES priced at 88.5%, this is a high-probability market with limited upside. A YES win returns only 13% on capital. The real opportunity may be on the NO side if you believe the market is overestimating the likelihood of this outcome. At 11.5% for NO, a correct contrarian bet returns 8.7x.

This market expires in 1 day — resolution is imminent. Short-dated markets tend to have the most accurate pricing since most information is already known. Any remaining edge is likely small, but the rapid time decay means positions resolve quickly with minimal holding risk.

At $2.2K in volume, this market has seen limited trading activity. Lower-volume markets can offer larger edges but come with execution risk — wide spreads and thin order books may make it difficult to enter or exit at desired prices.