Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
YES Price
2.1%
NO Price
97.9%
Volume
$802.4K
Liquidity
$40.9K
Days to Expiry
18
Mar 31, 2026
Alpha Score
Insufficient Data
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Split
Strength
44.0%
Edge
--
Smart Wallets
50
Total smart money volume: $140.8K across 50 wallets. Direction: SPLIT.
Market Analysis
Smart money is divided on this market. 50 tracked wallets have placed $140.8K in total positions, but without a clear directional consensus. A split among informed traders often indicates genuine uncertainty — this market may be closer to a coin flip than the current prices suggest.
At 2.1% for YES, this is a high-payout longshot. A YES resolution would return roughly 46.5x on the investment. The asymmetry is attractive — you don't need to be right often on these to profit, but the base rate of sub-20% events resolving YES is low. Consider position sizing accordingly.
18 days remain until this market resolves. This medium-term horizon gives time for the smart money thesis to play out, but also introduces event risk. Markets this far from expiry can see significant price swings as new information emerges.
Total trading volume of $802.4K puts this in the moderately active tier. There's enough price discovery for the odds to be somewhat reliable, but not so much that alpha opportunities are completely arbitraged away.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
28/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
--
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$40.9K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
Trade This Market on PolyFire
Copy smart money trades automatically. One-click execution via Telegram.
Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 2.1% and NO at 97.9%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 2.1%. The market has seen $802.4K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?"?
Smart money consensus is Split with 44% strength. 50 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $140.8K. Their overall direction is SPLIT.
Is "Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 28 out of 72 and an alpha score of N/A out of 100. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this business & economics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2026. That's 18 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?" market?
The market has $40.9K in liquidity. Moderate liquidity — suitable for most position sizes Total volume traded is $802.4K, which provides additional context on market activity.
Get Alpha Delivered
Weekly smart money moves, top-scoring markets, and data-driven predictions. No noise.
Coming soon.