Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?
YES Price
2.5%
NO Price
97.5%
Volume
$204.5K
Liquidity
$16.4K
Days to Expiry
110
Jun 30, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Strong NO
Strength
80.0%
Edge
2.5%
Smart Wallets
10
Total smart money volume: $13.5K across 10 wallets. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 10 tracked wallets have deployed $13.5K in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge is a narrow 2.5%, meaning smart money and the market are largely in agreement. The current YES price of 2.5% is close to where informed traders think it should be. In tight-edge markets, transaction costs and timing become more critical factors.
At 2.5% for YES, this is a high-payout longshot. A YES resolution would return roughly 39.2x on the investment. The asymmetry is attractive — you don't need to be right often on these to profit, but the base rate of sub-20% events resolving YES is low. Consider position sizing accordingly.
This is a longer-dated market with 110 days to resolution. While the annualized return potential can look attractive, extended timelines come with significant uncertainty. Smart money positions taken this far out reflect high-conviction views, but a lot can change.
Total trading volume of $204.5K puts this in the moderately active tier. There's enough price discovery for the odds to be somewhat reliable, but not so much that alpha opportunities are completely arbitraged away.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
8/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
9%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$16.4K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 2.5% and NO at 97.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 2.5%. The market has seen $204.5K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?"?
Smart money consensus is Strong NO with 80% strength. 10 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $13.5K. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 8 out of 72 and an alpha score of 12 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 2.5%. The annualized return potential is 9%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this business & economics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on June 30, 2026. That's 110 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?" market?
The market has $16.4K in liquidity. Thin liquidity — may experience slippage on larger orders Total volume traded is $204.5K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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