Will Paul LePage be the Republican Nominee for ME-02?
YES Price
92.0%
NO Price
8.0%
Volume
--
Liquidity
$6.8K
Days to Expiry
88
Jun 9, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Lean NO
Strength
66.7%
Edge
64.4%
Smart Wallets
3
Total smart money volume: $320 across 3 wallets. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 3 tracked wallets have deployed $320 in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge is 64.4% — a substantial gap between the current market price and where smart money analysis suggests the true probability lies. With the market pricing YES at 92.0% and the Lean NO consensus, there's a meaningful divergence that could represent a trading opportunity. Edges this large don't persist indefinitely; they either correct as the market catches up, or the smart money thesis proves wrong.
With YES priced at 92.0%, this is a high-probability market with limited upside. A YES win returns only 9% on capital. The real opportunity may be on the NO side if you believe the market is overestimating the likelihood of this outcome. At 8.0% for NO, a correct contrarian bet returns 12.5x.
This is a longer-dated market with 88 days to resolution. While the annualized return potential can look attractive, extended timelines come with significant uncertainty. Smart money positions taken this far out reflect high-conviction views, but a lot can change.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
44/72
Mild Opportunity
Annualized Return
267%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$6.8K
Available depth
This market presents a moderate trading opportunity. The edge exists but is balanced against factors like liquidity constraints or lower conviction in the consensus. Position sizing should reflect the moderate confidence level.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Paul LePage be the Republican Nominee for ME-02?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 92.0% and NO at 8.0%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 92.0%.
What does smart money think about "Will Paul LePage be the Republican Nominee for ME-02?"?
Smart money consensus is Lean NO with 67% strength. 3 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $320. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "Will Paul LePage be the Republican Nominee for ME-02?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 44 out of 72 and an alpha score of 1 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 64.4%. The annualized return potential is 267%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this us politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on June 9, 2026. That's 88 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Paul LePage be the Republican Nominee for ME-02?" market?
The market has $6.8K in liquidity. Thin liquidity — may experience slippage on larger orders
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