Will Pump.fun reach $0.0038 by December 31, 2026?
YES Price
55.5%
NO Price
44.5%
Volume
--
Liquidity
$772
Days to Expiry
294
Dec 31, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Strong NO
Strength
100.0%
Edge
55.5%
Smart Wallets
1
Total smart money volume: $620 across 1 wallet. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 1 tracked wallets have deployed $620 in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge is 55.5% — a substantial gap between the current market price and where smart money analysis suggests the true probability lies. With the market pricing YES at 55.5% and the Strong NO consensus, there's a meaningful divergence that could represent a trading opportunity. Edges this large don't persist indefinitely; they either correct as the market catches up, or the smart money thesis proves wrong.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 55.5% and NO at 44.5%. A YES resolution returns 1.80x while a NO resolution returns 2.25x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
This is a longer-dated market with 294 days to resolution. While the annualized return potential can look attractive, extended timelines come with significant uncertainty. Smart money positions taken this far out reflect high-conviction views, but a lot can change.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
30/72
Mild Opportunity
Annualized Return
69%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$772
Available depth
This market presents a moderate trading opportunity. The edge exists but is balanced against factors like liquidity constraints or lower conviction in the consensus. Position sizing should reflect the moderate confidence level.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Pump.fun reach $0.0038 by December 31, 2026?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 55.5% and NO at 44.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 55.5%.
What does smart money think about "Will Pump.fun reach $0.0038 by December 31, 2026?"?
Smart money consensus is Strong NO with 100% strength. 1 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $620. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "Will Pump.fun reach $0.0038 by December 31, 2026?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 30 out of 72 and an alpha score of 1 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 55.5%. The annualized return potential is 69%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this crypto & web3 market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026. That's 294 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Pump.fun reach $0.0038 by December 31, 2026?" market?
The market has $772 in liquidity. Very thin liquidity — trade with caution, significant slippage risk
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