Will "Sinners" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars?
YES Price
27.0%
NO Price
73.0%
Volume
$16.7K
Liquidity
$3.8K
Days to Expiry
2
Mar 15, 2026
Alpha Score
Insufficient Data
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Split
Strength
43.7%
Edge
--
Smart Wallets
10
Total smart money volume: $1.4K across 10 wallets. Direction: SPLIT.
Market Analysis
Smart money is divided on this market. 10 tracked wallets have placed $1.4K in total positions, but without a clear directional consensus. A split among informed traders often indicates genuine uncertainty — this market may be closer to a coin flip than the current prices suggest.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 27.0% and NO at 73.0%. A YES resolution returns 3.70x while a NO resolution returns 1.37x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
This market expires in 2 days — resolution is imminent. Short-dated markets tend to have the most accurate pricing since most information is already known. Any remaining edge is likely small, but the rapid time decay means positions resolve quickly with minimal holding risk.
At $16.7K in volume, this market has seen limited trading activity. Lower-volume markets can offer larger edges but come with execution risk — wide spreads and thin order books may make it difficult to enter or exit at desired prices.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
10/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
--
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$3.8K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will "Sinners" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 27.0% and NO at 73.0%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 27.0%. The market has seen $16.7K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will "Sinners" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars?"?
Smart money consensus is Split with 44% strength. 10 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $1.4K. Their overall direction is SPLIT.
Is "Will "Sinners" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 10 out of 72 and an alpha score of N/A out of 100. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this pop culture market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 15, 2026. That's 2 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will "Sinners" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars?" market?
The market has $3.8K in liquidity. Very thin liquidity — trade with caution, significant slippage risk Total volume traded is $16.7K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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