Will the Chicago Bears leave Illinois by Dec. 31?
YES Price
47.0%
NO Price
53.0%
Volume
--
Liquidity
$197
Days to Expiry
294
Jan 1, 2027
Alpha Score
Insufficient Data
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Lean NO
Strength
66.6%
Edge
32.9%
Smart Wallets
3
Total smart money volume: $99 across 3 wallets. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 3 tracked wallets have deployed $99 in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge is 32.9% — a substantial gap between the current market price and where smart money analysis suggests the true probability lies. With the market pricing YES at 47.0% and the Lean NO consensus, there's a meaningful divergence that could represent a trading opportunity. Edges this large don't persist indefinitely; they either correct as the market catches up, or the smart money thesis proves wrong.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 47.0% and NO at 53.0%. A YES resolution returns 2.13x while a NO resolution returns 1.89x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
This is a longer-dated market with 294 days to resolution. While the annualized return potential can look attractive, extended timelines come with significant uncertainty. Smart money positions taken this far out reflect high-conviction views, but a lot can change.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
20/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
41%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$197
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will the Chicago Bears leave Illinois by Dec. 31?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 47.0% and NO at 53.0%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 47.0%.
What does smart money think about "Will the Chicago Bears leave Illinois by Dec. 31?"?
Smart money consensus is Lean NO with 67% strength. 3 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $99. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "Will the Chicago Bears leave Illinois by Dec. 31?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 20 out of 72 and an alpha score of N/A out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 32.9%. The annualized return potential is 41%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this sports market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027. That's 294 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will the Chicago Bears leave Illinois by Dec. 31?" market?
The market has $197 in liquidity. Very thin liquidity — trade with caution, significant slippage risk
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