Will the Democratic Party win the IA-03 House seat?
YES Price
72.0%
NO Price
28.0%
Volume
--
Liquidity
$2.4K
Days to Expiry
236
Nov 4, 2026
Alpha Score
Insufficient Data
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Strong NO
Strength
100.0%
Edge
72.0%
Smart Wallets
1
Total smart money volume: $11 across 1 wallet. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 1 tracked wallets have deployed $11 in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge is 72.0% — a substantial gap between the current market price and where smart money analysis suggests the true probability lies. With the market pricing YES at 72.0% and the Strong NO consensus, there's a meaningful divergence that could represent a trading opportunity. Edges this large don't persist indefinitely; they either correct as the market catches up, or the smart money thesis proves wrong.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 72.0% and NO at 28.0%. A YES resolution returns 1.39x while a NO resolution returns 3.57x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
This is a longer-dated market with 236 days to resolution. While the annualized return potential can look attractive, extended timelines come with significant uncertainty. Smart money positions taken this far out reflect high-conviction views, but a lot can change.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
32/72
Mild Opportunity
Annualized Return
111%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$2.4K
Available depth
This market presents a moderate trading opportunity. The edge exists but is balanced against factors like liquidity constraints or lower conviction in the consensus. Position sizing should reflect the moderate confidence level.
Trade This Market on PolyFire
Copy smart money trades automatically. One-click execution via Telegram.
Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will the Democratic Party win the IA-03 House seat?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 72.0% and NO at 28.0%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 72.0%.
What does smart money think about "Will the Democratic Party win the IA-03 House seat?"?
Smart money consensus is Strong NO with 100% strength. 1 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $11. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "Will the Democratic Party win the IA-03 House seat?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 32 out of 72 and an alpha score of N/A out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 72.0%. The annualized return potential is 111%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this other markets market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on November 4, 2026. That's 236 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will the Democratic Party win the IA-03 House seat?" market?
The market has $2.4K in liquidity. Very thin liquidity — trade with caution, significant slippage risk
Get Alpha Delivered
Weekly smart money moves, top-scoring markets, and data-driven predictions. No noise.
Coming soon.