Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 2% on any day in Q1?
YES Price
55.5%
NO Price
44.5%
Volume
$12.9K
Liquidity
$260
Days to Expiry
18
Mar 31, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Lean NO
Strength
61.0%
Edge
38.8%
Smart Wallets
4
Total smart money volume: $1.2K across 4 wallets. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 4 tracked wallets have deployed $1.2K in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge is 38.8% — a substantial gap between the current market price and where smart money analysis suggests the true probability lies. With the market pricing YES at 55.5% and the Lean NO consensus, there's a meaningful divergence that could represent a trading opportunity. Edges this large don't persist indefinitely; they either correct as the market catches up, or the smart money thesis proves wrong.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 55.5% and NO at 44.5%. A YES resolution returns 1.80x while a NO resolution returns 2.25x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
18 days remain until this market resolves. This medium-term horizon gives time for the smart money thesis to play out, but also introduces event risk. Markets this far from expiry can see significant price swings as new information emerges.
At $12.9K in volume, this market has seen limited trading activity. Lower-volume markets can offer larger edges but come with execution risk — wide spreads and thin order books may make it difficult to enter or exit at desired prices.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
43/72
Mild Opportunity
Annualized Return
788%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$260
Available depth
This market presents a moderate trading opportunity. The edge exists but is balanced against factors like liquidity constraints or lower conviction in the consensus. Position sizing should reflect the moderate confidence level.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 2% on any day in Q1?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 55.5% and NO at 44.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 55.5%. The market has seen $12.9K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 2% on any day in Q1?"?
Smart money consensus is Lean NO with 61% strength. 4 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $1.2K. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 2% on any day in Q1?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 43 out of 72 and an alpha score of 8 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 38.8%. The annualized return potential is 788%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this business & economics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2026. That's 18 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 2% on any day in Q1?" market?
The market has $260 in liquidity. Very thin liquidity — trade with caution, significant slippage risk Total volume traded is $12.9K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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