Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?
YES Price
88.5%
NO Price
11.5%
Volume
$18.7K
Liquidity
$5.9K
Days to Expiry
18
Mar 31, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Lean YES
Strength
66.7%
Edge
8.0%
Smart Wallets
6
Total smart money volume: $5.0K across 6 wallets. Direction: STRONG YES.
Market Analysis
Smart money is decisively bullish on this market. 6 tracked wallets with a history of profitable trades have taken positions totaling $5.0K, overwhelmingly favoring YES. This level of conviction from informed traders is notable — when this many smart wallets align on one side, it often signals information or analysis the broader market hasn't fully priced in.
The consensus edge sits at 8.0%, indicating a moderate gap between market pricing and smart money sentiment. YES is currently at 88.5% while the Lean YES consensus suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to the information smart wallets are acting on. This edge is meaningful but not extreme.
With YES priced at 88.5%, this is a high-probability market with limited upside. A YES win returns only 13% on capital. The real opportunity may be on the NO side if you believe the market is overestimating the likelihood of this outcome. At 11.5% for NO, a correct contrarian bet returns 8.7x.
18 days remain until this market resolves. This medium-term horizon gives time for the smart money thesis to play out, but also introduces event risk. Markets this far from expiry can see significant price swings as new information emerges.
At $18.7K in volume, this market has seen limited trading activity. Lower-volume markets can offer larger edges but come with execution risk — wide spreads and thin order books may make it difficult to enter or exit at desired prices.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
29/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
163%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$5.9K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 88.5% and NO at 11.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 88.5%. The market has seen $18.7K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?"?
Smart money consensus is Lean YES with 67% strength. 6 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $5.0K. Their overall direction is STRONG YES.
Is "Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 29 out of 72 and an alpha score of 12 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 8.0%. The annualized return potential is 163%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this pop culture market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2026. That's 18 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?" market?
The market has $5.9K in liquidity. Thin liquidity — may experience slippage on larger orders Total volume traded is $18.7K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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