Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
YES Price
63.0%
NO Price
37.0%
Volume
$270.6K
Liquidity
$20.9K
Days to Expiry
30
Apr 12, 2026
Alpha Score
Insufficient Data
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Split
Strength
46.2%
Edge
--
Smart Wallets
13
Total smart money volume: $8.8K across 13 wallets. Direction: SPLIT.
Market Analysis
Smart money is divided on this market. 13 tracked wallets have placed $8.8K in total positions, but without a clear directional consensus. A split among informed traders often indicates genuine uncertainty — this market may be closer to a coin flip than the current prices suggest.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 63.0% and NO at 37.0%. A YES resolution returns 1.59x while a NO resolution returns 2.70x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
30 days remain until this market resolves. This medium-term horizon gives time for the smart money thesis to play out, but also introduces event risk. Markets this far from expiry can see significant price swings as new information emerges.
Total trading volume of $270.6K puts this in the moderately active tier. There's enough price discovery for the odds to be somewhat reliable, but not so much that alpha opportunities are completely arbitraged away.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
27/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
--
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$20.9K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 63.0% and NO at 37.0%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 63.0%. The market has seen $270.6K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?"?
Smart money consensus is Split with 46% strength. 13 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $8.8K. Their overall direction is SPLIT.
Is "Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 27 out of 72 and an alpha score of N/A out of 100. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this us politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on April 12, 2026. That's 30 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?" market?
The market has $20.9K in liquidity. Thin liquidity — may experience slippage on larger orders Total volume traded is $270.6K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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