Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?
YES Price
12.5%
NO Price
87.5%
Volume
$566.4K
Liquidity
$24.1K
Days to Expiry
3
Mar 15, 2026
Alpha Score
Moderate Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Strong NO
Strength
70.3%
Edge
12.5%
Smart Wallets
37
Total smart money volume: $31.8K across 37 wallets. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 37 tracked wallets have deployed $31.8K in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge sits at 12.5%, indicating a moderate gap between market pricing and smart money sentiment. YES is currently at 12.5% while the Strong NO consensus suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to the information smart wallets are acting on. This edge is meaningful but not extreme.
At 12.5% for YES, this is a high-payout longshot. A YES resolution would return roughly 8.0x on the investment. The asymmetry is attractive — you don't need to be right often on these to profit, but the base rate of sub-20% events resolving YES is low. Consider position sizing accordingly.
This market expires in 3 days — resolution is imminent. Short-dated markets tend to have the most accurate pricing since most information is already known. Any remaining edge is likely small, but the rapid time decay means positions resolve quickly with minimal holding risk.
Total trading volume of $566.4K puts this in the moderately active tier. There's enough price discovery for the odds to be somewhat reliable, but not so much that alpha opportunities are completely arbitraged away.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
40/72
Mild Opportunity
Annualized Return
1000%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$24.1K
Available depth
This market presents a moderate trading opportunity. The edge exists but is balanced against factors like liquidity constraints or lower conviction in the consensus. Position sizing should reflect the moderate confidence level.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 12.5% and NO at 87.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 12.5%. The market has seen $566.4K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?"?
Smart money consensus is Strong NO with 70% strength. 37 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $31.8K. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 40 out of 72 and an alpha score of 59 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 12.5%. The annualized return potential is 1000%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this world politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 15, 2026. That's 3 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?" market?
The market has $24.1K in liquidity. Thin liquidity — may experience slippage on larger orders Total volume traded is $566.4K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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