World Politics Prediction Markets
Global political markets covering international relations, elections, conflicts, and policy decisions. Smart money consensus on geopolitical outcomes.
Markets
602
Avg Alpha Score
15.5
Total Volume
$386.7M
With Smart Money Data
602
602 markets sorted by Alpha Score
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?
YES 34%/NO 67%
Alpha 100Strong NO
$360KWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 100Strong NO
$30.7MWill Israel or the US target Fordow nuclear facility?
YES 36%/NO 65%
Alpha 100Strong NO
$56KNaim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026?
YES 38%/NO 62%
Alpha 100Strong NO
$312KWill CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
YES 52%/NO 49%
Alpha 100Strong YES
$181KTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
YES 71%/NO 30%
Alpha 100Strong YES
$153KWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?
YES 13%/NO 87%
Alpha 85Strong NO
$3.9MWill Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?
YES 29%/NO 71%
Alpha 85Strong NO
$68KPakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31?
YES 28%/NO 72%
Alpha 84Strong NO
$72KWill US or Israel strike Iran first?
YES 50%/NO 50%
Alpha 83Lean YES
$6.4MWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 80Strong NO
$1.6MAnother critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?
YES 65%/NO 36%
Alpha 70Strong YES
$51KWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
YES 17%/NO 84%
Alpha 68Strong NO
$1.4MWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
YES 68%/NO 33%
Alpha 66Strong YES
$79KWill France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
YES 26%/NO 75%
Alpha 65Strong NO
$317KHouthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?
YES 13%/NO 88%
Alpha 59Strong NO
$566KWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 58Strong NO
$4.7MWill UK strike Iran by March 31?
YES 7%/NO 94%
Alpha 55Strong NO
$660KWill the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
YES 12%/NO 88%
Alpha 54Lean NO
$1.5MWill Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by March 31, 2026?
YES 7%/NO 94%
Alpha 54Strong NO
$213KHouthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?
YES 38%/NO 63%
Alpha 54Lean NO
$203KWill any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?
YES 11%/NO 89%
Alpha 54Strong NO
$199KWill France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31?
YES 15%/NO 85%
Alpha 53Lean NO
$3.4MWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
YES 33%/NO 68%
Alpha 52Strong NO
$612KIran leadership change by April 30?
YES 38%/NO 63%
Alpha 52Lean NO
$310KWill China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%?
YES 85%/NO 15%
Alpha 47Strong YES
$9KWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 46Strong NO
$4.1MWill Iran strike Ghawar Field by March 31?
YES 20%/NO 81%
Alpha 45Strong NO
$15KWill Kuwait strike Iran by March 31?
YES 7%/NO 93%
Alpha 45Strong NO
$60KWill Anže Logar be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 43Strong NO
$156KWill Russia enter Borova by March 31?
YES 9%/NO 92%
Alpha 43Strong NO
$62KWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
YES 24%/NO 77%
Alpha 42Lean NO
$15.1MWill Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by March 31?
YES 10%/NO 90%
Alpha 42Strong NO
$35KUS recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
YES 19%/NO 82%
Alpha 41Strong NO
$423KUS forces enter Iran by March 31?
YES 26%/NO 75%
Alpha 39Lean NO
$6.9MMiguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?
YES 52%/NO 48%
Alpha 38Strong NO
$140KWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?
YES 41%/NO 60%
Alpha 38Lean NO
$2.6MWill Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by March 31, 2026?
YES 25%/NO 76%
Alpha 37Strong NO
$9KWill Iran strike Lebanon in March?
YES 8%/NO 93%
Alpha 36Strong NO
$36KWill India strike Pakistan by March 31?
YES 7%/NO 93%
Alpha 35Strong NO
$66KWill UAE strike Iran by March 31?
YES 16%/NO 85%
Alpha 35Lean NO
$1.6MNo change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
YES 45%/NO 56%
Alpha 35Strong YES
$27KWill Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026?
YES 22%/NO 79%
Alpha 35Lean NO
$50KWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?
YES 62%/NO 38%
Alpha 34Lean NO
$2.6MT20 Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka
YES 48%/NO 53%
Alpha 33Strong NO
$8KUS announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?
YES 11%/NO 89%
Alpha 33Lean NO
$403KWill Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?
YES 10%/NO 91%
Alpha 33Strong NO
$148KTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
YES 36%/NO 65%
Alpha 33Lean YES
$865KWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?
YES 74%/NO 26%
Alpha 32Lean NO
$1.6MWill the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the March Meeting?
YES 81%/NO 20%
Alpha 32Strong YES
$24KPutin out as President of Russia by end of 2026?
YES 12%/NO 89%
Alpha 31Strong NO
$2.7MWill France strike Iran by March 31?
YES 9%/NO 91%
Alpha 31Lean NO
$520KNATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?
YES 13%/NO 87%
Alpha 31Strong NO
$155KWill the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the April Meeting?
YES 41%/NO 59%
Alpha 31Strong NO
$1KIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
YES 14%/NO 86%
Alpha 30Strong NO
$31KWill Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by March 31?
YES 17%/NO 83%
Alpha 30Strong NO
$6KWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?
YES 31%/NO 69%
Alpha 30Lean NO
$1.1MBank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
YES 54%/NO 47%
Alpha 29Lean NO
$37KIsrael strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?
YES 47%/NO 54%
Alpha 28Lean NO
$220KIran Nuke before 2027?
YES 13%/NO 87%
Alpha 28Strong NO
$333KWill a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
YES 50%/NO 51%
Alpha 28Strong NO
$80KUS/Israel strike Yemen by March 14?
YES 10%/NO 91%
Alpha 27Lean NO
$72KWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
YES 73%/NO 28%
Alpha 27Lean NO
$3.6MChina x Japan military clash before 2027?
YES 14%/NO 87%
Alpha 27Strong NO
$471KUkraine hits Moscow by March 31, 2026?
YES 10%/NO 91%
Alpha 26Strong NO
$3KWill Iran strike Turkey in March?
YES 13%/NO 87%
Alpha 26Lean NO
$352KWill Jordan strike Iran by March 31?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 26Strong NO
$144KWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
YES 74%/NO 27%
Alpha 26Strong YES
$1.1MIran leadership change by December 31?
YES 64%/NO 37%
Alpha 26Strong NO
$206KWill Powell say "Iran" during March press conference?
YES 61%/NO 39%
Alpha 26Strong NO
$1KNetanyahu out by June 30?
YES 17%/NO 84%
Alpha 25Strong NO
$28KTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?
YES 5%/NO 96%
Alpha 25Strong YES
$709KWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?
YES 28%/NO 72%
Alpha 25Lean YES
$71KWill Russia enter Pokrovskoe by April 30, 2026?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 24Strong NO
$3KWill Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026?
YES 22%/NO 79%
Alpha 24Lean YES
$28KWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
YES 33%/NO 68%
Alpha 23Lean NO
$9.5MIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
YES 24%/NO 76%
Alpha 21Lean NO
$100KWill the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?
YES 21%/NO 79%
Alpha 21Strong NO
$8KWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 17%/NO 83%
Alpha 21Strong YES
$5.5MU.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?
YES 36%/NO 65%
Alpha 21Lean YES
$63KU.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027?
YES 19%/NO 81%
Alpha 21Strong NO
$27KIran coup attempt by June 30?
YES 24%/NO 76%
Alpha 21Lean NO
$237KWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting?
YES 58%/NO 42%
Alpha 21Strong NO
$8KMojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 20Strong NO
$22KWill Israel strike 3 countries in March 2026?
YES 35%/NO 66%
Alpha 20Lean YES
$24KWill Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by March 31?
YES 23%/NO 77%
Alpha 20Strong YES
$21KWill Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?
YES 19%/NO 81%
Alpha 20Strong NO
$4KWill a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
YES 62%/NO 38%
Alpha 20Strong YES
$57KUkraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30?
YES 19%/NO 81%
Alpha 20Strong NO
$55KWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?
YES 22%/NO 79%
Alpha 20Lean NO
$802KWill Russia enter Dobropillia by March 31?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 19Strong NO
$9KMilitary action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026?
YES 72%/NO 28%
Alpha 19Lean YES
$130KWill Turkey strike Iran by March 31?
YES 8%/NO 92%
Alpha 19Lean NO
$320KChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
YES 21%/NO 80%
Alpha 19Strong NO
$160KUkraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
YES 28%/NO 73%
Alpha 19Strong NO
$56KU.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026?
YES 35%/NO 66%
Alpha 19Strong YES
$358KWill the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the March decision?
YES 79%/NO 22%
Alpha 18Lean NO
$8KWill CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
YES 45%/NO 56%
Alpha 18Lean NO
$14KNATO Article 5 by March 31?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 18Strong YES
$20KIsrael x Turkey military clash before 2027?
YES 23%/NO 77%
Alpha 18Strong NO
$64KWill Qatar strike Iran by March 31?
YES 10%/NO 90%
Alpha 18Lean NO
$717KWill Russia enter Borova by April 30?
YES 23%/NO 78%
Alpha 18Strong NO
$418Kurds declare independence from Iran?
YES 16%/NO 84%
Alpha 18Lean NO
$86KRussian strike on a NATO member by March 31?
YES 3%/NO 98%
Alpha 18Strong NO
$1.5M1k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in Q1 2026?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 17Strong YES
$43KWill Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?
YES 40%/NO 60%
Alpha 17Strong YES
$4KWill SPD win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
YES 52%/NO 48%
Alpha 17Strong YES
$8KUkraine election held by June 30, 2026?
YES 7%/NO 93%
Alpha 17Strong NO
$194KWill Russia capture all of Vovchansk by March 31?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 17Strong NO
$174KMasoud Pezeshkian out by March 31?
YES 14%/NO 87%
Alpha 17Lean NO
$229KWill Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?
YES 17%/NO 84%
Alpha 17Strong NO
$22KWill India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?
YES 28%/NO 73%
Alpha 17Strong NO
$122KFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
YES 12%/NO 89%
Alpha 16Strong NO
$42KUkraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?
YES 14%/NO 87%
Alpha 16Strong NO
$11KWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026?
YES 11%/NO 89%
Alpha 16Strong NO
$13KWill SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
YES 49%/NO 52%
Alpha 16Lean YES
$158KWill Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
YES 70%/NO 30%
Alpha 16Strong YES
$19Will the U.K. join the Board of Peace?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 16Strong YES
$44KWill Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 16%/NO 84%
Alpha 16Strong YES
$4.5MWill Trump cut off trade with Spain?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 15Lean NO
$292KWill Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 4%/NO 97%
Alpha 15Strong YES
$8.1MWill Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?
YES 33%/NO 67%
Alpha 15Strong NO
$4KIran nuclear test before 2027?
YES 13%/NO 88%
Alpha 15Strong NO
$97KWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 9%/NO 91%
Alpha 15Lean YES
$5.5MWill the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting?
YES 12%/NO 88%
Alpha 15Strong NO
$9KUS forces enter Iran by March 14?
YES 5%/NO 96%
Alpha 15Lean NO
$5.6MWill Russia capture all of Vovchansk by April 30?
YES 13%/NO 88%
Alpha 15Strong NO
$633NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
YES 26%/NO 74%
Alpha 15Strong NO
$11KMaduro guilty of all counts?
YES 36%/NO 65%
Alpha 15Strong NO
$97KEuropean country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
YES 23%/NO 78%
Alpha 15Lean NO
$90KWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
YES 15%/NO 85%
Alpha 15Lean NO
$640KWill the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?
YES 7%/NO 93%
Alpha 15Strong NO
$7KWill Russia capture Sofiivka by March 31?
YES 20%/NO 81%
Alpha 15Lean YES
$38KWill Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 14Strong YES
$9.9MWill Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 14Strong YES
$5.2MWill Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 14Strong YES
$5.1MWill Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
YES 12%/NO 88%
Alpha 14Strong YES
$183KWill Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
YES 90%/NO 11%
Alpha 14Strong YES
$1KWill Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?
YES 39%/NO 61%
Alpha 14Lean YES
$55KUkraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?
YES 16%/NO 85%
Alpha 14Strong NO
$11KWill Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 14Strong YES
$5.6MWill Iran strike Safaniya Field by March 31?
YES 32%/NO 68%
Alpha 14Lean NO
$22KWill Khamenei tweet every day through March 20?
YES 67%/NO 33%
Alpha 13Strong NO
$2KWill Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
YES 20%/NO 80%
Alpha 13Lean NO
$56KWill Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
YES 16%/NO 85%
Alpha 13Strong NO
$81KNikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by March 31?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 13Strong NO
$16KWill Ukraine join the Board of Peace?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 13Strong YES
$54KWill Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 13Strong YES
$5.2MNetanyahu out by end of 2026?
YES 48%/NO 53%
Alpha 13Lean NO
$431KPutin out as President of Russia by June 30?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 13Strong NO
$822KWill USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by March 31?
YES 10%/NO 90%
Alpha 13Strong YES
$102KWill Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
YES 59%/NO 41%
Alpha 13Lean YES
$1.2MWill the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?
YES 88%/NO 12%
Alpha 13Strong NO
$10KWill Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 13Lean NO
$156KWill Trump meet with Putin by March 31, 2026?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 13Lean YES
$196KWill Sweden join the Board of Peace?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 13Lean YES
$13KUS strike on Mexico by December 31?
YES 31%/NO 70%
Alpha 13Lean NO
$474KIran leadership change by March 31?
YES 19%/NO 81%
Alpha 12Lean NO
$733KUS seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 15?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 12Lean YES
$29KWill Khamenei tweet every day through March 27?
YES 47%/NO 54%
Alpha 12Strong YES
$2KWill Iran strike Pakistan in March?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 12Lean NO
$33KWill Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 12Strong YES
$4.6MUS forces enter Iran by December 31?
YES 61%/NO 39%
Alpha 12Lean NO
$1.4MWill Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 12Strong YES
$2.0MWill Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
YES 71%/NO 30%
Alpha 12Lean NO
$76KWill James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 12Strong YES
$2.5MWill Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?
YES 27%/NO 74%
Alpha 12Lean NO
$96KFrench election called by June 30, 2026?
YES 7%/NO 93%
Alpha 12Strong NO
$71KClaudio Tapia out as AFA President by July 19, 2026?
YES 14%/NO 87%
Alpha 12Strong NO
$190KWill Russia capture Havrylivka by April 30, 2026?
YES 25%/NO 75%
Alpha 12Lean NO
$51KWill Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?
YES 17%/NO 84%
Alpha 12Lean NO
$1.2MNo change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's March 2026 meeting?
YES 15%/NO 85%
Alpha 12Lean YES
$99KNuclear weapon detonation by March 31?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 11Lean NO
$506KWill Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 11Lean YES
$2.8MAnother critical Cloudflare incident by March 31, 2026?
YES 29%/NO 71%
Alpha 11Lean YES
$73KWill the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?
YES 16%/NO 85%
Alpha 11Lean NO
$283KChina x India military clash by December 31, 2026?
YES 14%/NO 86%
Alpha 11Strong NO
$87KUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
YES 23%/NO 77%
Alpha 11Lean NO
$817KUS forces in Venezuela again by March 31, 2026?
YES 8%/NO 93%
Alpha 11Strong NO
$1KUS forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?
YES 23%/NO 78%
Alpha 11Strong YES
$172KWill the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the April meeting?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 11Strong NO
$2KWill Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
YES 87%/NO 14%
Alpha 11Strong YES
$10KWill the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?
YES 96%/NO 5%
Alpha 11Strong YES
$88KRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
YES 40%/NO 61%
Alpha 11Lean YES
$11.5MWill Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 11Strong YES
$8.6MMacron out by June 30, 2026?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 11Strong NO
$259KWill CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
YES 53%/NO 47%
Alpha 10Strong YES
$6KWill BRICS add a new member in 2026?
YES 40%/NO 60%
Alpha 10Strong NO
$4KWill Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
YES 28%/NO 72%
Alpha 10Strong YES
$392KRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
YES 21%/NO 80%
Alpha 10Lean YES
$3.2MRussian strike on Poland by June 30?
YES 8%/NO 93%
Alpha 10Strong NO
$35KWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
YES 87%/NO 14%
Alpha 10Lean YES
$264KWill Italy join the Board of Peace?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 10Lean YES
$38KT20 Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka - Team Top Batter Draw
YES 49%/NO 52%
Alpha 10Strong YES
$24Will Acción Popular (AP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 10Strong YES
$6KUS strike on Cuba by March 31?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 10Lean NO
$919KWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 10Strong YES
$9.2MWill Daniel Ennis win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
YES 73%/NO 27%
Alpha 10Strong NO
$6KU.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027?
YES 16%/NO 84%
Alpha 10Strong NO
$2KWill Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 10Strong YES
$7.8MWill Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
YES 14%/NO 86%
Alpha 10Lean YES
$116KWill Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by March 31?
YES 31%/NO 70%
Alpha 10Lean NO
$26KNothing Ever Happens: 2026
YES 50%/NO 51%
Alpha 10Lean YES
$400KModi out before 2027?
YES 9%/NO 91%
Alpha 10Strong NO
$16KWill Russia enter Serhiivka by March 31?
YES 25%/NO 76%
Alpha 9Lean YES
$21KUS strike on Mexico by March 31?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 9Lean NO
$1.3MWill Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 9Lean YES
$2.7MWill another country recognize Somaliland by March 31?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 9Lean NO
$146KWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
YES 11%/NO 89%
Alpha 9Lean NO
$10.9MWill the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30?
YES 17%/NO 83%
Alpha 9Strong YES
$79KWill Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
YES 69%/NO 32%
Alpha 9Strong NO
$2KStarmer out by December 31, 2026?
YES 71%/NO 30%
Alpha 9Lean YES
$510KUS-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?
YES 6%/NO 95%
Alpha 9Lean NO
$990KWill Russia enter Novyi Donbas by March 31?
YES 16%/NO 84%
Alpha 9Strong YES
$12KWill Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
YES 18%/NO 83%
Alpha 9Strong YES
$294KWill Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 9Strong YES
$2.2MMasoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?
YES 33%/NO 68%
Alpha 9Lean NO
$91KWill the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?
YES 64%/NO 36%
Alpha 9Strong NO
$569Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
YES 9%/NO 92%
Alpha 9Lean NO
$141KWill Union Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 9Strong NO
$2KInternet Access restored in Iran by March 31, 2026?
YES 11%/NO 89%
Alpha 9Lean NO
$6KWill the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?
YES 7%/NO 93%
Alpha 9Strong NO
$23KWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 20%/NO 80%
Alpha 8Lean YES
$8.0MWill Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026?
YES 20%/NO 81%
Alpha 8Strong NO
$5KWill Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30?
YES 8%/NO 92%
Alpha 8Strong YES
$3KWill Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
YES 15%/NO 85%
Alpha 8Lean YES
$710KWill the U.S. tariff rate on China be 35% or greater on March 31?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 8Lean YES
$41KWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
YES 29%/NO 71%
Alpha 8Lean NO
$285KWill Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
YES 77%/NO 23%
Alpha 8Strong NO
$74KWill Hezbollah win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 8Lean YES
$41KWill Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by March 31?
YES 32%/NO 69%
Alpha 8Lean NO
$21KWill Iran strike Jordan in March?
YES 81%/NO 19%
Alpha 8Lean YES
$42KPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives before 2027?
YES 19%/NO 81%
Alpha 8Strong YES
$111KKadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026?
YES 14%/NO 87%
Alpha 8Strong YES
$23KWill Iran strike Dimona by March 31?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 8Lean NO
$86KWill Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
YES 10%/NO 91%
Alpha 8Lean YES
$180KUkraine election held by December 31, 2026?
YES 22%/NO 79%
Alpha 8Lean NO
$166KMilei out as President of Argentina before 2027?
YES 8%/NO 92%
Alpha 8Strong NO
$8KWill Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 8Strong YES
$2.3MWill Iran strike Cyprus in March?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 8Lean NO
$1.1MIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?
YES 29%/NO 71%
Alpha 8Lean NO
$53KWill Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by March 31?
YES 25%/NO 75%
Alpha 8Lean YES
$13KWill Russia enter Kindrashivka by March 31?
YES 23%/NO 77%
Alpha 7Strong YES
$771Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%?
YES 11%/NO 90%
Alpha 7Strong YES
$9KFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by March 31?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 7Strong YES
$20KWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YES 39%/NO 61%
Alpha 7Lean YES
$3.2MXi Jinping out before 2027?
YES 9%/NO 91%
Alpha 7Lean NO
$7.1MWill the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 7Strong YES
$242KWill Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 7Strong YES
$352KWill Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 7Strong YES
$609KWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YES 25%/NO 75%
Alpha 7Lean YES
$12.3MWill Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 7Strong NO
$196KWill Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
YES 61%/NO 39%
Alpha 7Lean NO
$24KWill Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 7Lean YES
$5.5MWill Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
YES 15%/NO 85%
Alpha 7Strong NO
$97KErdoğan out by end of 2026?
YES 12%/NO 89%
Alpha 7Lean NO
$259KUkraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by March 31, 2026?
YES 18%/NO 82%
Alpha 7Strong YES
$783Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 7Strong YES
$230KIsrael and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
YES 21%/NO 79%
Alpha 7Strong YES
$37KWill Russia capture all of Rodynske by April 30?
YES 65%/NO 36%
Alpha 7Lean YES
$21KAnother critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?
YES 87%/NO 14%
Alpha 7Lean YES
$34KWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March?
YES 18%/NO 83%
Alpha 7Lean NO
$104KGustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31?
YES 94%/NO 6%
Alpha 7Strong YES
$30KWill Russia capture Toretske by March 31, 2026?
YES 22%/NO 78%
Alpha 7Lean NO
$23KWill North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
YES 9%/NO 91%
Alpha 6Strong NO
$7KWill a country leave BRICS in 2026?
YES 17%/NO 84%
Alpha 6Strong NO
$5KIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?
YES 25%/NO 76%
Alpha 6Lean NO
$295KUS/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15?
YES 11%/NO 89%
Alpha 6Lean NO
$112KWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YES 45%/NO 56%
Alpha 6Lean YES
$4.0MNuclear weapon detonation by December 31?
YES 19%/NO 82%
Alpha 6Strong YES
$90KMahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31?
YES 42%/NO 58%
Alpha 6Strong YES
$29KWill Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary before 2027?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 6Strong YES
$31KWill the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
YES 23%/NO 77%
Alpha 6Lean NO
$159KWill Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 6Strong YES
$469KWill Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
YES 18%/NO 83%
Alpha 6Lean YES
$68KIran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?
YES 90%/NO 11%
Alpha 6Strong YES
$483Netanyahu out by March 31?
YES 7%/NO 93%
Alpha 6Lean NO
$111KJosé Luís Rodríguez Zapatero arrested by March 31?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 6Lean NO
$104KWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
YES 7%/NO 93%
Alpha 6Lean YES
$17KWill Iran strike Syria in March?
YES 8%/NO 93%
Alpha 6Lean NO
$39KWill the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the March Meeting?
YES 23%/NO 77%
Alpha 5Lean NO
$22KWill Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
YES 78%/NO 23%
Alpha 5Lean YES
$16KWill Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
YES 8%/NO 92%
Alpha 5Strong YES
$15KXi Jinping out by June 30?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 5Lean YES
$1.5MWill François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 5Strong YES
$297KNATO x Russia military clash by March 31, 2026?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 5Lean NO
$403KWill New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
YES 14%/NO 86%
Alpha 5Strong YES
$253KWill the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after March 2026 meeting?
YES 85%/NO 15%
Alpha 5Lean YES
$85KWill Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?
YES 9%/NO 91%
Alpha 5Strong YES
$19KWill Russia capture all of Drobysheve by March 31?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 5Lean NO
$26KWill Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 5Strong YES
$686KWill Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?
YES 21%/NO 80%
Alpha 5Lean YES
$124KMojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?
YES 7%/NO 94%
Alpha 5Lean NO
$8KWill National Liberal Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 5Strong NO
$2KWill Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
YES 37%/NO 64%
Alpha 5Lean NO
$44KWill Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 5Strong YES
$183KWill Russia join the Board of Peace?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 5Lean NO
$251KUS recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?
YES 24%/NO 77%
Alpha 5Lean NO
$23KUS grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?
YES 35%/NO 65%
Alpha 5Strong YES
$21KWill Xi Jinping purge Wang Yi in 2026?
YES 8%/NO 92%
Alpha 5Strong NO
$5KAziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
YES 82%/NO 18%
Alpha 5Lean YES
$103KWill Switzerland join the Board of Peace?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 5Strong NO
$12KWill Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026?
YES 13%/NO 88%
Alpha 5Strong NO
$8KWill Islamic Group win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 5Strong NO
$2KWill no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?
YES 36%/NO 64%
Alpha 5Lean YES
$106KNATO article 5 before 2027?
YES 13%/NO 87%
Alpha 4Lean YES
$28KWill Popular Nasserist Organization win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 4Strong NO
$2KWill Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 4Strong NO
$208KWill Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 4Strong YES
$707KWill Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 4Strong NO
$3KWill Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 4Strong YES
$33KWill Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 4Lean YES
$69KWill Marada Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 4Strong NO
$2KClaudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?
YES 12%/NO 88%
Alpha 4Strong NO
$400Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 4Lean NO
$59KWill Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 4Strong YES
$61KWill Starmer say "Reform" 2+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
YES 71%/NO 29%
Alpha 4Strong NO
$20EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30?
YES 7%/NO 94%
Alpha 4Strong YES
$66KRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
YES 7%/NO 94%
Alpha 4Lean NO
$565KWill Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 4Strong YES
$50KWill Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 4Lean NO
$2.1MWill Watani Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 4Strong NO
$2KWill the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?
YES 32%/NO 68%
Alpha 4Strong NO
--Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?
YES 14%/NO 86%
Alpha 4Strong YES
$6KWill Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 4Strong YES
$30KWill Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
YES 8%/NO 93%
Alpha 4Lean YES
$52KUkraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?
YES 14%/NO 86%
Alpha 4Lean YES
$17KWill Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
YES 9%/NO 91%
Alpha 4Lean NO
$254KWill the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
YES 14%/NO 86%
Alpha 4Strong YES
$26KWill Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 4Strong YES
$119KWill Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026?
YES 29%/NO 71%
Alpha 4Lean NO
$18KWill Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
YES 34%/NO 66%
Alpha 4Lean YES
$833KWill the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 3Lean YES
$227KWill the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?
YES 8%/NO 92%
Alpha 3Strong YES
$300US strike on Colombia by December 31?
YES 24%/NO 77%
Alpha 3Lean YES
$346KWill Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 3Strong YES
$58KWill Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026?
YES 9%/NO 92%
Alpha 3Strong NO
$19KWill CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
YES 86%/NO 14%
Alpha 3Strong NO
$11KWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 3Lean NO
$38KAnthony Albanese out as Prime Minister of Australia by December 31, 2026?
YES 18%/NO 82%
Alpha 3Strong YES
$4KWill Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 3Lean YES
$126KWill Israel strike 7 countries in 2026?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 3Lean YES
$33KEU dissolves before 2027?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 3Lean NO
$149KIran strike on US military by March 31?
YES 28%/NO 72%
Alpha 3Strong NO
--Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
YES 14%/NO 86%
Alpha 3Strong YES
$105KUkraine coup attempt by June 30?
YES 7%/NO 93%
Alpha 3Lean NO
$8KIsrael and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026?
YES 9%/NO 92%
Alpha 3Lean NO
$290KWill Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 3Strong YES
$66KWill Netanyahu visit NYC by March 31?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 3Lean NO
$102KMahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30?
YES 30%/NO 70%
Alpha 3Lean YES
$43KNATO dissolves before 2027?
YES 5%/NO 96%
Alpha 3Strong NO
$48KWill Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?
YES 13%/NO 88%
Alpha 3Strong YES
$28KWill Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
YES 13%/NO 88%
Alpha 3Lean YES
$12KWill Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 3Strong YES
$166KGustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 3Lean NO
$98KWill Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
YES 6%/NO 95%
Alpha 3Lean YES
$12KChristine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?
YES 23%/NO 78%
Alpha 3Lean NO
$10KWill US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 3Strong YES
$126KIsrael x Syria security agreement by March 31?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 2Lean NO
$145KWill Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
YES 8%/NO 93%
Alpha 2Lean YES
$230KWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
YES 4%/NO 96%
Alpha 2Lean NO
$1.3MChina coup attempt before 2027?
YES 7%/NO 93%
Alpha 2Lean NO
$104KKadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?
YES 30%/NO 71%
Alpha 2Lean YES
$26KUkraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 2Strong NO
--Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 2Lean YES
$91KWill Russia capture Havrylivka by March 31, 2026?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 2Strong NO
$3KPeople's Bank of China rate cut by March 31?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 2Lean NO
$24KWill Ali Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
YES 7%/NO 93%
Alpha 2Strong YES
$108KWill China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
YES 7%/NO 94%
Alpha 2Lean NO
$678KUS x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
YES 77%/NO 24%
Alpha 2Strong NO
$501Will Iran strike Afghanistan in March?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 2Lean NO
$14KWill Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
YES 13%/NO 87%
Alpha 2Lean YES
$163KWill Khamenei tweet again on March 13, 2026?
YES 93%/NO 7%
Alpha 2Lean NO
$11KWill Gerry Hutch win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 2Strong NO
$4KUS recognize Somaliland by June 30, 2026?
YES 36%/NO 64%
Alpha 2Strong NO
--Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by March 31, 2026?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 2Strong NO
--Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by March 31, 2026?
YES 7%/NO 93%
Alpha 2Strong NO
--Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
YES 3%/NO 97%
Alpha 2Lean YES
$42KWill another country strike Iran by March 31?
YES 27%/NO 74%
Alpha 1Split
$2.6MWill Russia capture all of Ternuvate by March 31, 2026?
YES 2%/NO 98%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?
YES 37%/NO 63%
Alpha 1Strong YES
--Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?
YES 7%/NO 94%
Alpha 1Lean NO
$102KLabour leadership election scheduled by June 30?
YES 34%/NO 66%
Alpha 1Lean YES
--Will Ukraine advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?
YES 94%/NO 6%
Alpha 1Strong YES
--Will Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026?
YES 9%/NO 91%
Alpha 1Strong YES
$8KWill The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?
YES 16%/NO 85%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
YES 38%/NO 63%
Alpha 1Split
$2.9MWill Xi Jinping purge Ding Xuexiang in 2026?
YES 9%/NO 91%
Alpha 1Strong YES
$9KWill Russia enter Krasnopillya by April 30?
YES 13%/NO 87%
Alpha 1Strong YES
--Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
YES 17%/NO 83%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?
YES 28%/NO 72%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
YES 51%/NO 50%
Alpha 1Split
$785KWill Russia enter Kherson by June 30?
YES 5%/NO 95%
Alpha 1Strong YES
--Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 1Lean NO
$449KU.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?
YES 11%/NO 89%
Alpha 1Split
$1.2MWill Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30?
YES 19%/NO 82%
Alpha 1Lean YES
--Will Xi Jinping purge Zhao Leji in 2026?
YES 6%/NO 94%
Alpha 1Strong YES
$4KWill New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?
YES 27%/NO 73%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will Noel Thomas win the 2026 Galway West by-election?
YES 41%/NO 60%
Alpha 1Strong YES
--U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?
YES 18%/NO 83%
Alpha 1Strong NO
--Will Russia enter Khatnie by March 31, 2026?
YES 12%/NO 89%
Alpha 1Lean NO
--Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
YES 86%/NO 14%
Alpha 1Split
$5.3MIsrael and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?
YES 10%/NO 90%
Alpha 1Strong YES
--Will Janice Boylan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
YES 14%/NO 86%
Alpha 1Strong YES
$2KWill Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
YES 26%/NO 75%
No ScoreSplit
$504KWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?
YES 6%/NO 95%
No ScoreSplit
$859KWill Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
YES 21%/NO 80%
No ScoreSplit
$36KWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March?
YES 3%/NO 97%
No ScoreSplit
$254KWill the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
YES 13%/NO 88%
No ScoreSplit
$153KWill the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31?
YES 68%/NO 33%
No ScoreSplit
$56KUS x China Military clash before 2027?
YES 9%/NO 92%
No ScoreSplit
$27KWill Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?
YES 18%/NO 82%
No ScoreSplit
$216KUkraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?
YES 33%/NO 67%
No ScoreSplit
$81KWill ReLebanon win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
YES 3%/NO 97%
No ScoreSplit
$1KECB rate hike in 2026?
YES 55%/NO 46%
No ScoreSplit
$23KUS forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?
YES 5%/NO 95%
No ScoreSplit
$261KWill Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2026 Cochabamba mayoral election?
YES 97%/NO 3%
No ScoreSplit
$28KIran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?
YES 73%/NO 27%
No ScoreSplit
$237KWill Iran strike Jordan in March?
YES 83%/NO 18%
No ScoreSplit
$55KU.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
YES 23%/NO 77%
No ScoreLean NO
--Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?
YES 73%/NO 27%
No ScoreLean YES
--NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?
YES 5%/NO 95%
No ScoreSplit
$92KWill India join the Board of Peace?
YES 3%/NO 97%
No ScoreSplit
$43KUkraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
YES 13%/NO 87%
No ScoreSplit
$58KIsrael x Syria security agreement by June 30?
YES 22%/NO 78%
No ScoreSplit
$157KUkraine election called by June 30, 2026?
YES 11%/NO 90%
No ScoreSplit
$198KWill there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?
YES 47%/NO 53%
No ScoreSplit
$26KUS strike on Cuba by December 31?
YES 39%/NO 61%
No ScoreSplit
$554KWill there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?
YES 6%/NO 94%
No ScoreSplit
$65KInternet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?
YES 36%/NO 64%
No ScoreSplit
$262Anthony Albanese out as Prime Minister of Australia by June 30, 2026?
YES 7%/NO 93%
No ScoreStrong YES
--Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 13?
YES 25%/NO 75%
No ScoreSplit
$88KWill Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by March 31?
YES 46%/NO 54%
No ScoreSplit
$38KWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31?
YES 16%/NO 85%
No ScoreSplit
$1.7MWill Israel strike 2 countries in March 2026?
YES 40%/NO 61%
No ScoreSplit
$43KWill Marco Rubio visit China by April 30, 2026?
YES 85%/NO 15%
No ScoreSplit
$26KWill Hamas agree to disarm by March 31?
YES 4%/NO 96%
No ScoreSplit
$241KU.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
YES 16%/NO 85%
No ScoreSplit
$121KIran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 15?
YES 6%/NO 95%
No ScoreSplit
$26KWill Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?
YES 8%/NO 92%
No ScoreSplit
$136KWill a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?
YES 7%/NO 93%
No ScoreSplit
$200KStarmer out by April 30, 2026?
YES 13%/NO 88%
No ScoreSplit
$26KWill Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by March 31?
YES 24%/NO 76%
No ScoreSplit
$28KWill Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
YES 18%/NO 82%
No ScoreSplit
--Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?
YES 88%/NO 13%
No ScoreSplit
--Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
YES 53%/NO 47%
No ScoreSplit
$277KAhmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria before 2027?
YES 14%/NO 86%
No ScoreLean NO
--Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?
YES 9%/NO 92%
No ScoreSplit
--Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain?
YES 13%/NO 88%
No ScoreSplit
$78KWill the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?
YES 11%/NO 90%
No ScoreSplit
$61KUkraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
YES 27%/NO 74%
No ScoreSplit
$174KWill SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
YES 6%/NO 94%
No ScoreStrong YES
--US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
YES 40%/NO 60%
No ScoreSplit
$2.2MNorth Korea missile test/launch by March 31?
YES 61%/NO 39%
No ScoreSplit
$24KWill Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31?
YES 41%/NO 60%
No ScoreSplit
$178KIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?
YES 4%/NO 96%
No ScoreSplit
$1.8MAnother critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026?
YES 75%/NO 25%
No ScoreSplit
$29KPutin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30?
YES 5%/NO 95%
No ScoreSplit
$4KWill Greece recognize Palestine before 2027?
YES 12%/NO 88%
No ScoreStrong YES
--US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
YES 32%/NO 68%
No ScoreSplit
$21KUkraine joins NATO before 2027?
YES 3%/NO 97%
No ScoreLean NO
--Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March?
YES 10%/NO 91%
No ScoreSplit
$128KWill Russia enter Havrylivka by March 31, 2026?
YES 6%/NO 94%
No ScoreSplit
$3KU.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?
YES 11%/NO 89%
No ScoreSplit
$23KWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 13?
YES 4%/NO 96%
No ScoreSplit
$281KUkraine peace referendum scheduled by March 31?
YES 2%/NO 98%
No ScoreSplit
$14KUkraine peace referendum passed before 2027?
YES 26%/NO 75%
No ScoreStrong YES
--Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?
YES 50%/NO 50%
No ScoreSplit
$53KWill Alex Vanopslagh be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
YES 5%/NO 95%
No ScoreSplit
$168KAnyone charged for doxing Delta Force commander heading Maduro grab by March 31?
YES 3%/NO 97%
No ScoreSplit
--Will Russia enter Sumy by June 30?
YES 7%/NO 94%
No ScoreSplit
--New COVID variant of concern before 2027?
YES 11%/NO 89%
No ScoreSplit
$228KECB rate cut in 2026?
YES 27%/NO 73%
No ScoreSplit
$17KWill Russia capture Kindrativka by March 31?
YES 9%/NO 92%
No ScoreSplit
--Will Israel strike 2 countries in 2026?
YES 6%/NO 94%
No ScoreSplit
$821KWill Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by April 30, 2026?
YES 32%/NO 69%
No ScoreSplit
$8KIsrael strike on Damascus by March 31, 2026?
YES 8%/NO 92%
No ScoreSplit
$102KWill Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
YES 19%/NO 82%
No ScoreSplit
$30KWill Israel strike 8 countries in 2026?
YES 2%/NO 98%
No ScoreSplit
$126KWill Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
YES 2%/NO 98%
No ScoreSplit
$26KWill Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
YES 4%/NO 96%
No ScoreSplit
$29KBank of England increases interest rates after April 2026 meeting?
YES 12%/NO 88%
No ScoreSplit
--Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?
YES 68%/NO 32%
No ScoreSplit
$21KWill Marco Rubio visit China by December 31, 2026?
YES 88%/NO 13%
No ScoreSplit
$857Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30?
YES 10%/NO 91%
No ScoreSplit
$3KU.S. strike on Nigeria by June 30, 2026?
YES 30%/NO 70%
No ScoreSplit
$608Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be at least 2.5%?
YES 6%/NO 94%
No ScoreStrong YES
--US announces military support of Iran oppostion by March 31?
YES 17%/NO 84%
No ScoreSplit
$109KIran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
YES 66%/NO 35%
No ScoreSplit
$445KWill Brazil join the Board of Peace?
YES 5%/NO 95%
No ScoreSplit
$14KWill Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026?
YES 28%/NO 72%
No ScoreSplit
$51KWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?
YES 4%/NO 96%
No ScoreSplit
$571KWill Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?
YES 64%/NO 37%
No ScoreSplit
$123KWill Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?
YES 58%/NO 42%
No ScoreSplit
$123KUS x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
YES 58%/NO 42%
No ScoreSplit
$854KKim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea before 2027?
YES 7%/NO 93%
No ScoreStrong NO
--Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?
YES 78%/NO 22%
No ScoreSplit
$43KUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
YES 22%/NO 79%
No ScoreSplit
$7.3MIsraeli parliament dissolved by March 31?
YES 6%/NO 94%
No ScoreSplit
$530KWill the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
YES 11%/NO 90%
No ScoreSplit
$230KNuclear weapon detonation by June 30?
YES 12%/NO 89%
No ScoreSplit
$251KCilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?
YES 9%/NO 91%
No ScoreSplit
--Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
YES 62%/NO 39%
No ScoreSplit
$3.3MWill Séamas McGrattan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
YES 4%/NO 96%
No ScoreStrong YES
--Venezuela election scheduled by March 31, 2026?
YES 3%/NO 97%
No ScoreSplit
$156KMasoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?
YES 46%/NO 55%
No ScoreSplit
$95KWill the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the March decision?
YES 17%/NO 83%
No ScoreSplit
$6KWill Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?
YES 7%/NO 94%
No ScoreSplit
$142KWill the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack?
YES 11%/NO 90%
No ScoreSplit
$391KNext Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31?
YES 97%/NO 3%
No ScoreSplit
$295KWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
YES 58%/NO 42%
No ScoreSplit
$13KWill NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?
YES 9%/NO 91%
No ScoreSplit
$9KWill Russia invade another country in 2026?
YES 13%/NO 87%
No ScoreSplit
$22KWill Russia enter Ternuvate again by March 31?
YES 11%/NO 90%
No ScoreSplit
$65KAnother US strike on Venezuela by December 31?
YES 22%/NO 79%
No ScoreSplit
$157KWill Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?
YES 11%/NO 90%
No ScoreSplit
$596KKaty Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?
YES 34%/NO 67%
No ScoreSplit
$31KWill Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30?
YES 17%/NO 83%
No ScoreSplit
--Will Indonesia recognize Israel by June 30?
YES 12%/NO 88%
No ScoreStrong YES
--Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30?
YES 7%/NO 94%
No ScoreSplit
$67KWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13?
YES 14%/NO 86%
No ScoreSplit
$141KDelcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
YES 27%/NO 74%
No ScoreSplit
$100KWill the Bank of Canada announce no change at the April meeting?
YES 88%/NO 12%
No ScoreSplit
$5KWill any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30?
YES 13%/NO 88%
No ScoreSplit
$38KWill Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?
YES 10%/NO 91%
No ScoreSplit
$15KWill Israel annex any territory by June 30?
YES 12%/NO 88%
No ScoreSplit
$107KWill Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
YES 4%/NO 96%
No ScoreSplit
$101KLecornu out as French PM by June 30, 2026?
YES 13%/NO 88%
No ScoreSplit
$15KWill the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
YES 78%/NO 22%
No ScoreSplit
$345KWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?
YES 34%/NO 67%
No ScoreSplit
$40KWill Norway join the Board of Peace?
YES 2%/NO 98%
No ScoreSplit
$39KWill Khamenei tweet again on March 15, 2026?
YES 93%/NO 7%
No ScoreSplit
$13KLabour leadership election scheduled by March 31?
YES 2%/NO 98%
No ScoreSplit
$17KIsrael and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
YES 20%/NO 80%
No ScoreSplit
$569KWill the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?
YES 12%/NO 88%
No ScoreSplit
$18KYoon out of custody before 2027?
YES 8%/NO 92%
No ScoreStrong YES
--Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan in 2026?
YES 11%/NO 90%
No ScoreSplit
$18KTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
YES 80%/NO 21%
No ScoreSplit
$55KIran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
YES 21%/NO 80%
No ScoreSplit
$1.2MWill Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026?
YES 3%/NO 97%
No ScoreSplit
$47KStarmer out by June 30, 2026?
YES 44%/NO 56%
No ScoreSplit
$1.2MWill Khamenei tweet again on March 14, 2026?
YES 95%/NO 6%
No ScoreSplit
$4KIsrael x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
YES 38%/NO 62%
No ScoreSplit
$19KWill Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
YES 3%/NO 97%
No ScoreStrong YES
--Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?
YES 23%/NO 77%
No ScoreSplit
$37KWill Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
YES 20%/NO 80%
No ScoreStrong YES
--Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?
YES 14%/NO 86%
No ScoreSplit
--US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31?
YES 50%/NO 51%
No ScoreSplit
$62KWill Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?
YES 16%/NO 85%
No ScoreSplit
$133KWill USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by March 31?
YES 11%/NO 90%
No ScoreSplit
$178KUS-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
YES 14%/NO 87%
No ScoreSplit
$13KT20 Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka - Who wins the toss?
YES 49%/NO 52%
No ScoreSplit
$326Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30?
YES 5%/NO 96%
No ScoreSplit
$15KIran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31?
YES 46%/NO 55%
No ScoreSplit
$107KWill Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
YES 16%/NO 84%
No ScoreSplit
$125KWill Russia enter Dobropillia by April 30?
YES 11%/NO 89%
No ScoreStrong YES
--US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?
YES 9%/NO 92%
No ScoreSplit
$84KIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by March 31, 2026?
YES 7%/NO 94%
No ScoreSplit
$127KStarmer out by March 31, 2026?
YES 6%/NO 94%
No ScoreSplit
$649KIsrael and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
YES 19%/NO 82%
No ScoreSplit
$93KWill María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
YES 14%/NO 86%
No ScoreSplit
$809KWill the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on March 31?
YES 16%/NO 85%
No ScoreSplit
$41KIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 31?
YES 5%/NO 95%
No ScoreSplit
$549KWill Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
YES 26%/NO 74%
No ScoreSplit
$493KClaudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30?
YES 5%/NO 95%
No ScoreSplit
$114KWill Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?
YES 7%/NO 93%
No ScoreSplit
$603KKadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by March 31, 2026?
YES 2%/NO 98%
No ScoreSplit
$71KWill Russia enter Mykhailivka by April 30?
YES 22%/NO 79%
No ScoreSplit
$85KTshisekedi out as President of the DRC by end of 2026?
YES 12%/NO 89%
No ScoreSplit
$9KMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31?
YES 35%/NO 66%
No ScoreSplit
$133KWill Russia enter Kharkiv by June 30?
YES 3%/NO 97%
No ScoreSplit
$31KWill Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election?
YES 3%/NO 97%
No ScoreSplit
$289KWill Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
YES 25%/NO 75%
No ScoreSplit
$7KWill Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026?
YES 9%/NO 91%
No ScoreSplit
$78KZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?
YES 12%/NO 88%
No ScoreSplit
$106KUS-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
YES 38%/NO 62%
No ScoreSplit
$371KWill Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30?
YES 9%/NO 91%
No ScoreSplit
$15KMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 16?
YES 7%/NO 93%
No ScoreSplit
$205KWill Russia strike Kyiv on March 31, 2026?
YES 12%/NO 88%
No ScoreSplit
$24KSwiss National Bank decreases policy rate after March Meeting?
YES 3%/NO 97%
No ScoreSplit
$15KWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the March Meeting?
YES 78%/NO 23%
No ScoreSplit
$22K2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?
YES 10%/NO 91%
No ScoreSplit
$128KWill United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
YES 96%/NO 4%
No ScoreSplit
$57KWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
YES 19%/NO 82%
No ScoreSplit
$61KWill Russia capture Bilytske by March 31, 2026?
YES 6%/NO 95%
No ScoreSplit
$55KWill the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?
YES 90%/NO 11%
No ScoreSplit
$130KWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?
YES 31%/NO 70%
No ScoreSplit
$221KSudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
YES 20%/NO 80%
No ScoreSplit
--Will Russia capture Pokrovka by March 31?
YES 28%/NO 72%
No ScoreSplit
--Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?
YES 94%/NO 7%
No ScoreSplit
$70KWill Iran strike Yemen in March?
YES 3%/NO 97%
No ScoreSplit
$11KWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
YES 35%/NO 65%
No ScoreSplit
$469KWill United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
YES 35%/NO 66%
No ScoreSplit
$2KUS strike on Colombia by March 31?
YES 3%/NO 97%
No ScoreSplit
$370KWill Russia enter Stinky by March 31?
YES 24%/NO 77%
No ScoreSplit
$16KWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31?
YES 3%/NO 97%
No ScoreSplit
$284KWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?
YES 18%/NO 83%
No ScoreSplit
$108KWill the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the March Meeting?
YES 19%/NO 82%
No ScoreSplit
$38KMore EU sanctions on Russia by March 31?
YES 18%/NO 83%
No ScoreSplit
$4KNguesso out as President of the Republic of the Congo by end of 2026?
YES 14%/NO 87%
No ScoreSplit
$10KIsrael strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
YES 72%/NO 28%
No ScoreSplit
$305KWill the Labour Party (PvdA) win the most seats in Amsterdam’s 2026 municipal election?
YES 40%/NO 61%
No ScoreSplit
$6KWorld Politics Markets FAQ
How many world politics prediction markets are available?
There are currently 602 world politics prediction markets being tracked and analyzed on PolyPulse. Each market includes smart money consensus data, alpha scoring, and opportunity assessment.
What is the average alpha score for world politics markets?
The average alpha score across world politics markets is 15.5 out of 100. Markets in this category tend to be more efficiently priced, with smart money and the broader market more closely aligned.
How does smart money analysis work for world politics markets?
PolyPulse tracks thousands of wallets with a demonstrated history of profitable prediction market trades. For world politics markets, we analyze their position direction (YES/NO), size, and timing to generate a consensus signal. When smart money heavily favors one side, it often indicates an edge the broader market hasn't priced in.
What is the best world politics market to trade right now?
Markets are ranked by alpha score, which measures the gap between smart money consensus and current market pricing. The top-ranked world politics markets on this page have the highest alpha scores, indicating the largest potential edge. However, always consider liquidity, time to expiry, and your own analysis before trading.
How often is world politics market data updated?
Market data including prices, volume, smart money positions, and alpha scores are refreshed regularly to reflect the latest on-chain activity. Smart money consensus can shift as new positions are taken, so check back frequently for updated analysis.
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