Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?
YES Price
46.5%
NO Price
53.5%
Volume
$220.1K
Liquidity
$14.8K
Days to Expiry
19
Mar 31, 2026
Alpha Score
Low Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Lean NO
Strength
60.6%
Edge
32.5%
Smart Wallets
33
Total smart money volume: $20.1K across 33 wallets. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 33 tracked wallets have deployed $20.1K in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge is 32.5% — a substantial gap between the current market price and where smart money analysis suggests the true probability lies. With the market pricing YES at 46.5% and the Lean NO consensus, there's a meaningful divergence that could represent a trading opportunity. Edges this large don't persist indefinitely; they either correct as the market catches up, or the smart money thesis proves wrong.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 46.5% and NO at 53.5%. A YES resolution returns 2.15x while a NO resolution returns 1.87x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
19 days remain until this market resolves. This medium-term horizon gives time for the smart money thesis to play out, but also introduces event risk. Markets this far from expiry can see significant price swings as new information emerges.
Total trading volume of $220.1K puts this in the moderately active tier. There's enough price discovery for the odds to be somewhat reliable, but not so much that alpha opportunities are completely arbitraged away.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
45/72
Moderate Opportunity
Annualized Return
625%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$14.8K
Available depth
This market presents a moderate trading opportunity. The edge exists but is balanced against factors like liquidity constraints or lower conviction in the consensus. Position sizing should reflect the moderate confidence level.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 46.5% and NO at 53.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 46.5%. The market has seen $220.1K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?"?
Smart money consensus is Lean NO with 61% strength. 33 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $20.1K. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 45 out of 72 and an alpha score of 28 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 32.5%. The annualized return potential is 625%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this world politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2026. That's 19 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?" market?
The market has $14.8K in liquidity. Thin liquidity — may experience slippage on larger orders Total volume traded is $220.1K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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