Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 16?
YES Price
7.0%
NO Price
93.0%
Volume
$204.5K
Liquidity
$20.0K
Days to Expiry
4
Mar 16, 2026
Alpha Score
Insufficient Data
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Split
Strength
52.9%
Edge
--
Smart Wallets
17
Total smart money volume: $15.3K across 17 wallets. Direction: SPLIT.
Market Analysis
Smart money is divided on this market. 17 tracked wallets have placed $15.3K in total positions, but without a clear directional consensus. A split among informed traders often indicates genuine uncertainty — this market may be closer to a coin flip than the current prices suggest.
At 7.0% for YES, this is a high-payout longshot. A YES resolution would return roughly 14.3x on the investment. The asymmetry is attractive — you don't need to be right often on these to profit, but the base rate of sub-20% events resolving YES is low. Consider position sizing accordingly.
With 4 days until expiry, this is a short-duration trade. The compressed timeline limits exposure to black swan events but also means the market is likely well-informed. Position conviction should be high at this stage.
Total trading volume of $204.5K puts this in the moderately active tier. There's enough price discovery for the odds to be somewhat reliable, but not so much that alpha opportunities are completely arbitraged away.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
32/72
Mild Opportunity
Annualized Return
--
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$20.0K
Available depth
This market presents a moderate trading opportunity. The edge exists but is balanced against factors like liquidity constraints or lower conviction in the consensus. Position sizing should reflect the moderate confidence level.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 16?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 7.0% and NO at 93.0%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 7.0%. The market has seen $204.5K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 16?"?
Smart money consensus is Split with 53% strength. 17 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $15.3K. Their overall direction is SPLIT.
Is "Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 16?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 32 out of 72 and an alpha score of N/A out of 100. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this world politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 16, 2026. That's 4 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 16?" market?
The market has $20.0K in liquidity. Thin liquidity — may experience slippage on larger orders Total volume traded is $204.5K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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