US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?
YES Price
5.5%
NO Price
94.5%
Volume
$990.5K
Liquidity
$35.8K
Days to Expiry
19
Mar 31, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Lean NO
Strength
60.6%
Edge
3.9%
Smart Wallets
71
Total smart money volume: $143.0K across 71 wallets. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 71 tracked wallets have deployed $143.0K in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge is a narrow 3.9%, meaning smart money and the market are largely in agreement. The current YES price of 5.5% is close to where informed traders think it should be. In tight-edge markets, transaction costs and timing become more critical factors.
At 5.5% for YES, this is a high-payout longshot. A YES resolution would return roughly 18.2x on the investment. The asymmetry is attractive — you don't need to be right often on these to profit, but the base rate of sub-20% events resolving YES is low. Consider position sizing accordingly.
19 days remain until this market resolves. This medium-term horizon gives time for the smart money thesis to play out, but also introduces event risk. Markets this far from expiry can see significant price swings as new information emerges.
Total trading volume of $990.5K puts this in the moderately active tier. There's enough price discovery for the odds to be somewhat reliable, but not so much that alpha opportunities are completely arbitraged away.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
30/72
Mild Opportunity
Annualized Return
74%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$35.8K
Available depth
This market presents a moderate trading opportunity. The edge exists but is balanced against factors like liquidity constraints or lower conviction in the consensus. Position sizing should reflect the moderate confidence level.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 5.5% and NO at 94.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 5.5%. The market has seen $990.5K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?"?
Smart money consensus is Lean NO with 61% strength. 71 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $143.0K. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 30 out of 72 and an alpha score of 9 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 3.9%. The annualized return potential is 74%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this world politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2026. That's 19 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?" market?
The market has $35.8K in liquidity. Moderate liquidity — suitable for most position sizes Total volume traded is $990.5K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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