Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?
YES Price
21.5%
NO Price
78.5%
Volume
$801.8K
Liquidity
$30.4K
Days to Expiry
18
Mar 31, 2026
Alpha Score
Low Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Lean NO
Strength
59.5%
Edge
15.0%
Smart Wallets
37
Total smart money volume: $188.4K across 37 wallets. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 37 tracked wallets have deployed $188.4K in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge is 15.0% — a substantial gap between the current market price and where smart money analysis suggests the true probability lies. With the market pricing YES at 21.5% and the Lean NO consensus, there's a meaningful divergence that could represent a trading opportunity. Edges this large don't persist indefinitely; they either correct as the market catches up, or the smart money thesis proves wrong.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 21.5% and NO at 78.5%. A YES resolution returns 4.65x while a NO resolution returns 1.27x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
18 days remain until this market resolves. This medium-term horizon gives time for the smart money thesis to play out, but also introduces event risk. Markets this far from expiry can see significant price swings as new information emerges.
Total trading volume of $801.8K puts this in the moderately active tier. There's enough price discovery for the odds to be somewhat reliable, but not so much that alpha opportunities are completely arbitraged away.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
36/72
Mild Opportunity
Annualized Return
305%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$30.4K
Available depth
This market presents a moderate trading opportunity. The edge exists but is balanced against factors like liquidity constraints or lower conviction in the consensus. Position sizing should reflect the moderate confidence level.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 21.5% and NO at 78.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 21.5%. The market has seen $801.8K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?"?
Smart money consensus is Lean NO with 59% strength. 37 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $188.4K. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 36 out of 72 and an alpha score of 20 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 15.0%. The annualized return potential is 305%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this world politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2026. That's 18 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?" market?
The market has $30.4K in liquidity. Moderate liquidity — suitable for most position sizes Total volume traded is $801.8K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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