Will Iran strike Jordan in March?
YES Price
82.5%
NO Price
17.5%
Volume
$54.8K
Liquidity
$9.1K
Days to Expiry
18
Mar 31, 2026
Alpha Score
Insufficient Data
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Split
Strength
49.9%
Edge
--
Smart Wallets
25
Total smart money volume: $5.7K across 25 wallets. Direction: SPLIT.
Market Analysis
Smart money is divided on this market. 25 tracked wallets have placed $5.7K in total positions, but without a clear directional consensus. A split among informed traders often indicates genuine uncertainty — this market may be closer to a coin flip than the current prices suggest.
With YES priced at 82.5%, this is a high-probability market with limited upside. A YES win returns only 21% on capital. The real opportunity may be on the NO side if you believe the market is overestimating the likelihood of this outcome. At 17.5% for NO, a correct contrarian bet returns 5.7x.
18 days remain until this market resolves. This medium-term horizon gives time for the smart money thesis to play out, but also introduces event risk. Markets this far from expiry can see significant price swings as new information emerges.
At $54.8K in volume, this market has seen limited trading activity. Lower-volume markets can offer larger edges but come with execution risk — wide spreads and thin order books may make it difficult to enter or exit at desired prices.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
25/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
--
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$9.1K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Iran strike Jordan in March?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 82.5% and NO at 17.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 82.5%. The market has seen $54.8K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will Iran strike Jordan in March?"?
Smart money consensus is Split with 50% strength. 25 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $5.7K. Their overall direction is SPLIT.
Is "Will Iran strike Jordan in March?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 25 out of 72 and an alpha score of N/A out of 100. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this world politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2026. That's 18 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Iran strike Jordan in March?" market?
The market has $9.1K in liquidity. Thin liquidity — may experience slippage on larger orders Total volume traded is $54.8K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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