Will Iran strike Lebanon in March?
YES Price
7.5%
NO Price
92.5%
Volume
$35.6K
Liquidity
$6.2K
Days to Expiry
18
Mar 31, 2026
Alpha Score
Low Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Strong NO
Strength
73.3%
Edge
7.5%
Smart Wallets
15
Total smart money volume: $3.6K across 15 wallets. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 15 tracked wallets have deployed $3.6K in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge sits at 7.5%, indicating a moderate gap between market pricing and smart money sentiment. YES is currently at 7.5% while the Strong NO consensus suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to the information smart wallets are acting on. This edge is meaningful but not extreme.
At 7.5% for YES, this is a high-payout longshot. A YES resolution would return roughly 13.3x on the investment. The asymmetry is attractive — you don't need to be right often on these to profit, but the base rate of sub-20% events resolving YES is low. Consider position sizing accordingly.
18 days remain until this market resolves. This medium-term horizon gives time for the smart money thesis to play out, but also introduces event risk. Markets this far from expiry can see significant price swings as new information emerges.
At $35.6K in volume, this market has seen limited trading activity. Lower-volume markets can offer larger edges but come with execution risk — wide spreads and thin order books may make it difficult to enter or exit at desired prices.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
28/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
152%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$6.2K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Iran strike Lebanon in March?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 7.5% and NO at 92.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 7.5%. The market has seen $35.6K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will Iran strike Lebanon in March?"?
Smart money consensus is Strong NO with 73% strength. 15 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $3.6K. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "Will Iran strike Lebanon in March?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 28 out of 72 and an alpha score of 36 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 7.5%. The annualized return potential is 152%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this world politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2026. That's 18 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Iran strike Lebanon in March?" market?
The market has $6.2K in liquidity. Thin liquidity — may experience slippage on larger orders Total volume traded is $35.6K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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