Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
YES Price
68.5%
NO Price
31.5%
Volume
$1.7K
Liquidity
$830
Days to Expiry
64
May 16, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Strong NO
Strength
100.0%
Edge
68.5%
Smart Wallets
1
Total smart money volume: $127 across 1 wallet. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 1 tracked wallets have deployed $127 in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge is 68.5% — a substantial gap between the current market price and where smart money analysis suggests the true probability lies. With the market pricing YES at 68.5% and the Strong NO consensus, there's a meaningful divergence that could represent a trading opportunity. Edges this large don't persist indefinitely; they either correct as the market catches up, or the smart money thesis proves wrong.
The market is relatively balanced with YES at 68.5% and NO at 31.5%. A YES resolution returns 1.46x while a NO resolution returns 3.17x. In balanced markets like this, the edge from smart money consensus becomes the primary decision driver rather than raw payout asymmetry.
This is a longer-dated market with 64 days to resolution. While the annualized return potential can look attractive, extended timelines come with significant uncertainty. Smart money positions taken this far out reflect high-conviction views, but a lot can change.
At $1.7K in volume, this market has seen limited trading activity. Lower-volume markets can offer larger edges but come with execution risk — wide spreads and thin order books may make it difficult to enter or exit at desired prices.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
40/72
Mild Opportunity
Annualized Return
391%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$830
Available depth
This market presents a moderate trading opportunity. The edge exists but is balanced against factors like liquidity constraints or lower conviction in the consensus. Position sizing should reflect the moderate confidence level.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 68.5% and NO at 31.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 68.5%. The market has seen $1.7K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?"?
Smart money consensus is Strong NO with 100% strength. 1 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $127. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 40 out of 72 and an alpha score of 9 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 68.5%. The annualized return potential is 391%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this world politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on May 16, 2026. That's 64 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?" market?
The market has $830 in liquidity. Very thin liquidity — trade with caution, significant slippage risk Total volume traded is $1.7K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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