Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?
YES Price
87.5%
NO Price
12.5%
Volume
--
Liquidity
$15.0K
Days to Expiry
30
Apr 12, 2026
Alpha Score
Insufficient Data
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Split
Strength
50.0%
Edge
--
Smart Wallets
4
Total smart money volume: $6.0K across 4 wallets. Direction: SPLIT.
Market Analysis
Smart money is divided on this market. 4 tracked wallets have placed $6.0K in total positions, but without a clear directional consensus. A split among informed traders often indicates genuine uncertainty — this market may be closer to a coin flip than the current prices suggest.
With YES priced at 87.5%, this is a high-probability market with limited upside. A YES win returns only 14% on capital. The real opportunity may be on the NO side if you believe the market is overestimating the likelihood of this outcome. At 12.5% for NO, a correct contrarian bet returns 8.0x.
30 days remain until this market resolves. This medium-term horizon gives time for the smart money thesis to play out, but also introduces event risk. Markets this far from expiry can see significant price swings as new information emerges.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
26/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
--
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$15.0K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 87.5% and NO at 12.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 87.5%.
What does smart money think about "Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?"?
Smart money consensus is Split with 50% strength. 4 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $6.0K. Their overall direction is SPLIT.
Is "Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 26 out of 72 and an alpha score of N/A out of 100. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this world politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on April 12, 2026. That's 30 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?" market?
The market has $15.0K in liquidity. Thin liquidity — may experience slippage on larger orders
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