Will Project Hail Mary be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?
YES Price
83.0%
NO Price
17.0%
Volume
$7.0K
Liquidity
$2.2K
Days to Expiry
49
Apr 30, 2026
Alpha Score
Insufficient Data
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Split
Strength
42.9%
Edge
--
Smart Wallets
7
Total smart money volume: $1.9K across 7 wallets. Direction: SPLIT.
Market Analysis
Smart money is divided on this market. 7 tracked wallets have placed $1.9K in total positions, but without a clear directional consensus. A split among informed traders often indicates genuine uncertainty — this market may be closer to a coin flip than the current prices suggest.
With YES priced at 83.0%, this is a high-probability market with limited upside. A YES win returns only 20% on capital. The real opportunity may be on the NO side if you believe the market is overestimating the likelihood of this outcome. At 17.0% for NO, a correct contrarian bet returns 5.9x.
49 days remain until this market resolves. This medium-term horizon gives time for the smart money thesis to play out, but also introduces event risk. Markets this far from expiry can see significant price swings as new information emerges.
At $7.0K in volume, this market has seen limited trading activity. Lower-volume markets can offer larger edges but come with execution risk — wide spreads and thin order books may make it difficult to enter or exit at desired prices.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
17/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
--
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$2.2K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Project Hail Mary be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 83.0% and NO at 17.0%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 83.0%. The market has seen $7.0K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will Project Hail Mary be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?"?
Smart money consensus is Split with 43% strength. 7 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $1.9K. Their overall direction is SPLIT.
Is "Will Project Hail Mary be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 17 out of 72 and an alpha score of N/A out of 100. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this entertainment market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on April 30, 2026. That's 49 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Project Hail Mary be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?" market?
The market has $2.2K in liquidity. Very thin liquidity — trade with caution, significant slippage risk Total volume traded is $7.0K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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