Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?
YES Price
2.3%
NO Price
97.8%
Volume
$4.68M
Liquidity
$172.9K
Days to Expiry
19
Mar 31, 2026
Alpha Score
Moderate Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Strong NO
Strength
81.0%
Edge
2.2%
Smart Wallets
126
Total smart money volume: $683.4K across 126 wallets. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 126 tracked wallets have deployed $683.4K in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge is a narrow 2.2%, meaning smart money and the market are largely in agreement. The current YES price of 2.3% is close to where informed traders think it should be. In tight-edge markets, transaction costs and timing become more critical factors.
At 2.3% for YES, this is a high-payout longshot. A YES resolution would return roughly 44.4x on the investment. The asymmetry is attractive — you don't need to be right often on these to profit, but the base rate of sub-20% events resolving YES is low. Consider position sizing accordingly.
19 days remain until this market resolves. This medium-term horizon gives time for the smart money thesis to play out, but also introduces event risk. Markets this far from expiry can see significant price swings as new information emerges.
With $4.68M in total volume, this is a heavily-traded market with strong price discovery. High-volume markets tend to be more efficiently priced, making any remaining smart money edge particularly significant — it's harder to find alpha in liquid markets.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
33/72
Mild Opportunity
Annualized Return
43%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$172.9K
Available depth
This market presents a moderate trading opportunity. The edge exists but is balanced against factors like liquidity constraints or lower conviction in the consensus. Position sizing should reflect the moderate confidence level.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 2.3% and NO at 97.8%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 2.3%. The market has seen $4.68M in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?"?
Smart money consensus is Strong NO with 81% strength. 126 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $683.4K. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 33 out of 72 and an alpha score of 58 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 2.2%. The annualized return potential is 43%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this world politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2026. That's 19 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?" market?
The market has $172.9K in liquidity. Deep liquidity — easy to enter and exit positions Total volume traded is $4.68M, which provides additional context on market activity.
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