Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
YES Price
86.5%
NO Price
13.5%
Volume
$263.5K
Liquidity
$29.7K
Days to Expiry
294
Dec 31, 2026
Alpha Score
Minimal Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Lean YES
Strength
68.4%
Edge
9.5%
Smart Wallets
19
Total smart money volume: $74.2K across 19 wallets. Direction: STRONG YES.
Market Analysis
Smart money is decisively bullish on this market. 19 tracked wallets with a history of profitable trades have taken positions totaling $74.2K, overwhelmingly favoring YES. This level of conviction from informed traders is notable — when this many smart wallets align on one side, it often signals information or analysis the broader market hasn't fully priced in.
The consensus edge sits at 9.5%, indicating a moderate gap between market pricing and smart money sentiment. YES is currently at 86.5% while the Lean YES consensus suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to the information smart wallets are acting on. This edge is meaningful but not extreme.
With YES priced at 86.5%, this is a high-probability market with limited upside. A YES win returns only 16% on capital. The real opportunity may be on the NO side if you believe the market is overestimating the likelihood of this outcome. At 13.5% for NO, a correct contrarian bet returns 7.4x.
This is a longer-dated market with 294 days to resolution. While the annualized return potential can look attractive, extended timelines come with significant uncertainty. Smart money positions taken this far out reflect high-conviction views, but a lot can change.
Total trading volume of $263.5K puts this in the moderately active tier. There's enough price discovery for the odds to be somewhat reliable, but not so much that alpha opportunities are completely arbitraged away.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
13/72
Low Opportunity
Annualized Return
12%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$29.7K
Available depth
Current metrics suggest limited trading opportunity in this market. The edge may be too small, the timeline too long, or the liquidity too thin to warrant a high-conviction position. Monitor for changes in smart money positioning.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 86.5% and NO at 13.5%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 86.5%. The market has seen $263.5K in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?"?
Smart money consensus is Lean YES with 68% strength. 19 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $74.2K. Their overall direction is STRONG YES.
Is "Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 13 out of 72 and an alpha score of 10 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 9.5%. The annualized return potential is 12%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this world politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026. That's 294 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?" market?
The market has $29.7K in liquidity. Moderate liquidity — suitable for most position sizes Total volume traded is $263.5K, which provides additional context on market activity.
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