Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
YES Price
12.0%
NO Price
87.9%
Volume
$1.47M
Liquidity
$62.4K
Days to Expiry
19
Mar 31, 2026
Alpha Score
Moderate Alpha
The Alpha Score measures the divergence between market price and smart money positioning on a 0–100 scale. Higher scores indicate larger gaps between what the market thinks and what informed traders are betting on.
Smart Money Consensus
Direction
Lean NO
Strength
69.2%
Edge
8.4%
Smart Wallets
91
Total smart money volume: $266.0K across 91 wallets. Direction: STRONG NO.
Market Analysis
Smart money is firmly positioned against this outcome. 91 tracked wallets have deployed $266.0K in total, with the overwhelming majority betting NO. When sophisticated traders cluster this heavily on one side, it typically reflects deeper analysis or information advantages that haven't been fully absorbed by the market.
The consensus edge sits at 8.4%, indicating a moderate gap between market pricing and smart money sentiment. YES is currently at 12.0% while the Lean NO consensus suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to the information smart wallets are acting on. This edge is meaningful but not extreme.
At 12.0% for YES, this is a high-payout longshot. A YES resolution would return roughly 8.3x on the investment. The asymmetry is attractive — you don't need to be right often on these to profit, but the base rate of sub-20% events resolving YES is low. Consider position sizing accordingly.
19 days remain until this market resolves. This medium-term horizon gives time for the smart money thesis to play out, but also introduces event risk. Markets this far from expiry can see significant price swings as new information emerges.
With $1.47M in total volume, this is a heavily-traded market with strong price discovery. High-volume markets tend to be more efficiently priced, making any remaining smart money edge particularly significant — it's harder to find alpha in liquid markets.
Trading Opportunity
Opportunity Score
34/72
Mild Opportunity
Annualized Return
162%
If consensus is correct
Liquidity
$62.4K
Available depth
This market presents a moderate trading opportunity. The edge exists but is balanced against factors like liquidity constraints or lower conviction in the consensus. Position sizing should reflect the moderate confidence level.
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Open PolyFire BotFrequently Asked Questions
What are the current odds for "Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?"?
As of the latest data, the market prices YES at 12.0% and NO at 87.9%. This means the market-implied probability of this outcome is 12.0%. The market has seen $1.47M in trading volume.
What does smart money think about "Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?"?
Smart money consensus is Lean NO with 69% strength. 91 tracked wallets — traders with a history of profitable predictions — have taken positions totaling $266.0K. Their overall direction is STRONG NO.
Is "Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?" a good trading opportunity?
This market has an opportunity score of 34 out of 72 and an alpha score of 54 out of 100. The consensus edge — the gap between market price and smart money valuation — is 8.4%. The annualized return potential is 162%. As with all prediction markets, past smart money performance does not guarantee future results.
When does this world politics market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2026. That's 19 days from the time of analysis.
How liquid is the "Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?" market?
The market has $62.4K in liquidity. Moderate liquidity — suitable for most position sizes Total volume traded is $1.47M, which provides additional context on market activity.
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